FiveThirtyEight
Galen Druke

If Trump doesn’t run, it’s not totally impossible. The GOP has changed over the past decade, but it’s not like a wholly different party. Historically, more moderate candidates have done well in GOP presidential primaries — Bush, McCain, Romney, to name a few. And even in 2016, Trump was seen as more moderate by primary voters than the alternative, Ted Cruz. So, who exactly knows up from down post-2016, but that’s some historical context to think about.

Geoffrey Skelley

To Micah’s earlier post — this is some serious putting the cart before the horse by Douthat. Besides, you know, besting Trump in a primary, it’s never been easy to run as a sitting governor of Virginia because usually governors run after they’ve been in office for at least a term. But governors can’t run for reelection in Virginia, so generally you either run after you’ve only been in office for a couple years, like Doug Wilder for a minute in the 1992 Democratic presidential primary (which was a huge failure) or you try to run afterward like Jim Gilmore in the GOP presidential primary in 2016 (Gilmore’s was not a serious campaign, to be fair).

Nathaniel Rakich

In the race for Boston mayor, progressive Michelle Wu leads moderate Annissa Essaibi George 60 percent to 39 percent, with 40 percent reporting.


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