What Went Down During The 2021 Elections
Oh god, at the risk of getting ourselves sucked into a 2024 discussion: Isn’t winning in Florida a more representative bar to clear in terms of the national Republican primary electorate than winning in Virginia?
I don’t think the Douthat take is ridiculous at all. Republicans have been talking for a long time about what their post-Trump model looks like and Youngkin is as plausible as anyone. I’d argue that winning in Virginia clears a higher bar than DeSantis winning in Florida, for instance.
Using our benchmark vote margins in each Virginia locality, Youngkin continues to outperform where he needs to be to win. Now, it’s very important to note that many places have not reported absentee ballots, which we know will lean fairly Democratic and could shift vote tallies much closer to the 2020 benchmark margins, one way or the other. But Youngkin has to be pleased with the trends so far. The big story at this point is still probably Loudoun County, where McAuliffe leads by about 10.5 points, which is about 5 points more Republican than our benchmark there. In the 2020 presidential election, Biden carried the northern Virginia county by 25 points, when it made up about 5 percent of the state’s vote. But now with 95 percent of the expected vote in from Loudoun, it’s looking like Youngkin will see a meaningful improvement there, and that’s consistent with GOP-leaning shifts in many other places that have mostly reported.
Early returns are favorable for Youngkin — with caveats
Benchmarks for the 2021 governor’s race, based on each city’s or county’s two-party vote margin relative to Joe Biden’s statewide two-party vote margin in the 2020 presidential election
| 2020 result | 2021 result | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Locality | Share of statewide vote | Benchmark two-party vote margin | Exp. vote | Two-party Vote Margin | Shift from Benchmark |
| Fairfax Co. | 13.47% | D+32.4 | 53% | D+36.1 | D+3.6 |
| Loudoun Co. | 5.04 | D+15.2 | 95 | D+10.5 | R+4.7 |
| Chesterfield Co. | 4.57 | R+3.5 | 52 | R+11.0 | R+7.5 |
| Henrico Co. | 4.11 | D+19.2 | 71 | D+9.4 | R+9.8 |
| Arlington Co. | 2.93 | D+54.7 | 75 | D+57.3 | D+2.5 |
| Stafford Co. | 1.79 | R+7.0 | 73 | R+20.6 | R+13.6 |
| Hampton city | 1.48 | D+32.7 | 51 | D+24.5 | R+8.1 |
| Frederick Co. | 1.09 | R+38.3 | 66 | R+35.2 | D+3.0 |
| Bedford Co. | 1.09 | R+59.3 | 57 | R+67.3 | R+7.9 |
| Montgomery Co. | 1.01 | R+4.4 | 67 | R+21.7 | R+17.2 |
| Rockingham Co. | 0.98 | R+51.5 | 86 | R+61.9 | R+10.4 |
| Fauquier Co. | 0.98 | R+28.0 | 69 | R+44.4 | R+16.5 |
| Roanoke city | 0.97 | D+16.0 | 59 | D+1.0 | R+15.1 |
| Augusta Co. | 0.95 | R+58.1 | 80 | R+66.8 | R+8.6 |
| York Co. | 0.87 | R+17.1 | 95 | R+18.1 | R+1.1 |
| Pittsylvania Co. | 0.77 | R+50.6 | 95 | R+51.0 | R+0.5 |
| Franklin Co. | 0.67 | R+53.1 | 67 | R+63.1 | R+10.0 |
| Washington Co. | 0.64 | R+63.5 | 99 | R+59.2 | D+4.4 |
| Culpeper Co. | 0.61 | R+30.6 | 95 | R+34.1 | R+3.6 |
| Henry Co. | 0.59 | R+39.7 | 65 | R+49.4 | R+9.7 |
| Isle of Wight Co. | 0.53 | R+29.0 | 95 | R+29.7 | R+0.8 |
| Gloucester Co. | 0.50 | R+46.5 | 95 | R+45.8 | D+0.7 |
| Louisa Co. | 0.49 | R+33.6 | 95 | R+33.4 | D+0.2 |
| Warren Co. | 0.47 | R+46.4 | 55 | R+61.6 | R+15.2 |
| Botetourt Co. | 0.47 | R+55.5 | 95 | R+52.3 | D+3.2 |
| Orange Co. | 0.47 | R+32.0 | 95 | R+33.8 | R+1.8 |
| Tazewell Co. | 0.45 | R+78.2 | 95 | R+74.1 | D+4.1 |
| Danville city | 0.43 | D+12.1 | 95 | D+7.1 | R+5.0 |
| Halifax Co. | 0.41 | R+25.5 | 91 | R+1.6 | D+24.0 |
| Pulaski Co. | 0.39 | R+52.5 | 95 | R+49.7 | D+2.8 |
| Harrisonburg city | 0.38 | D+22.4 | 95 | D+21.0 | R+1.4 |
| Amherst Co. | 0.38 | R+42.4 | 77 | R+53.0 | R+10.6 |
| Manassas city | 0.38 | D+14.4 | 99 | D+9.7 | R+4.7 |
| Wise Co. | 0.37 | R+72.6 | 70 | R+75.9 | R+3.4 |
| Caroline Co. | 0.37 | R+14.6 | 93 | R+18.8 | R+4.2 |
| Mecklenburg Co. | 0.36 | R+25.6 | 95 | R+30.5 | R+4.8 |
| Fluvanna Co. | 0.36 | R+15.1 | 60 | R+35.4 | R+20.4 |
| Carroll Co. | 0.35 | R+73.6 | 95 | R+67.9 | D+5.8 |
| Dinwiddie Co. | 0.34 | R+26.9 | 95 | R+28.2 | R+1.4 |
| Wythe Co. | 0.34 | R+68.1 | 95 | R+64.7 | D+3.3 |
| New Kent Co. | 0.32 | R+45.5 | 64 | R+52.6 | R+7.1 |
| King George Co. | 0.32 | R+32.3 | 95 | R+37.9 | R+5.6 |
| Smyth Co. | 0.32 | R+67.2 | 95 | R+66.2 | D+1.0 |
| Petersburg city | 0.32 | D+67.0 | 90 | D+72.2 | D+5.2 |
| Fairfax city | 0.30 | D+28.9 | 95 | D+27.8 | R+1.1 |
| Russell Co. | 0.30 | R+74.5 | 95 | R+70.7 | D+3.8 |
| Staunton city | 0.29 | R+0.2 | 95 | D+3.0 | D+3.2 |
| Fred’burg city | 0.29 | D+25.4 | 60 | D+12.1 | R+13.3 |
| Page Co. | 0.28 | R+61.6 | 80 | R+75.3 | R+13.7 |
| Winchester city | 0.27 | D+1.4 | 51 | R+13.6 | R+15.0 |
| Greene Co. | 0.25 | R+34.8 | 95 | R+36.7 | R+1.9 |
| Scott Co. | 0.24 | R+78.8 | 95 | R+76.9 | D+1.9 |
| King William Co. | 0.24 | R+48.7 | 95 | R+47.8 | D+0.9 |
| Waynesboro city | 0.24 | R+15.5 | 95 | R+16.4 | R+0.8 |
| Buchanan Co. | 0.22 | R+78.2 | 87 | R+70.2 | D+8.0 |
| Lee Co. | 0.22 | R+80.1 | 88 | R+80.5 | R+0.5 |
| Westmoreland Co. | 0.22 | R+18.6 | 95 | R+22.4 | R+3.8 |
| Pr. Edward Co. | 0.21 | R+4.6 | 95 | R+15.4 | R+10.8 |
| Patrick Co. | 0.21 | R+68.9 | 83 | R+72.5 | R+3.6 |
| Floyd Co. | 0.21 | R+45.2 | 61 | R+54.1 | R+8.9 |
| Clarke Co. | 0.21 | R+24.3 | 95 | R+26.5 | R+2.2 |
| Nelson Co. | 0.21 | R+15.6 | 95 | R+12.9 | D+2.7 |
| Appomattox Co. | 0.21 | R+57.3 | 95 | R+64.4 | R+7.1 |
| Giles Co. | 0.21 | R+62.6 | 72 | R+67.4 | R+4.8 |
| Col. Heights city | 0.21 | R+44.1 | 95 | R+48.7 | R+4.6 |
| Falls Church city | 0.20 | D+55.2 | 95 | D+50.3 | R+4.9 |
| Alleghany Co. | 0.18 | R+54.9 | 90 | R+59.0 | R+4.0 |
| Grayson Co. | 0.18 | R+72.2 | 88 | R+74.7 | R+2.5 |
| Madison Co. | 0.18 | R+42.8 | 74 | R+39.0 | D+3.9 |
| Buckingham Co. | 0.18 | R+23.7 | 73 | R+41.2 | R+17.5 |
| Brunswick Co. | 0.18 | D+4.8 | 87 | D+3.9 | R+0.9 |
| Amelia Co. | 0.18 | R+48.5 | 95 | R+49.8 | R+1.3 |
| North’berland Co. | 0.18 | R+26.2 | 93 | R+29.5 | R+3.3 |
| Bristol city | 0.18 | R+49.9 | 99 | R+48.3 | D+1.6 |
| Dickenson Co. | 0.16 | R+68.9 | 86 | R+64.4 | D+4.5 |
| Lancaster Co. | 0.16 | R+15.0 | 95 | R+18.6 | R+3.7 |
| Williamsburg city | 0.15 | D+31.6 | 95 | D+29.3 | R+2.3 |
| Middlesex Co. | 0.15 | R+35.8 | 95 | R+34.0 | D+1.8 |
| Northampton Co. | 0.15 | D+0.4 | 95 | R+8.2 | R+8.6 |
| Radford city | 0.14 | R+1.0 | 95 | R+10.6 | R+9.6 |
| Essex Co. | 0.14 | R+10.9 | 95 | R+16.2 | R+5.3 |
| Man. Park city | 0.14 | D+23.4 | 51 | D+12.0 | R+11.4 |
| Martinsville city | 0.13 | D+16.7 | 65 | D+6.8 | R+9.9 |
| Lunenburg Co. | 0.13 | R+29.1 | 95 | R+31.5 | R+2.4 |
| Mathews Co. | 0.13 | R+46.6 | 95 | R+44.8 | D+1.8 |
| Cumberland Co. | 0.12 | R+25.4 | 95 | R+32.1 | R+6.7 |
| Sussex Co. | 0.11 | D+1.7 | 99 | R+0.0 | R+1.7 |
| Rappahannock Co. | 0.11 | R+24.9 | 95 | R+28.3 | R+3.4 |
| Greensville Co. | 0.10 | D+5.4 | 95 | R+0.4 | R+5.8 |
| Surry Co. | 0.10 | R+1.9 | 95 | R+2.2 | R+0.3 |
| Charles City Co. | 0.10 | D+9.4 | 95 | D+0.5 | R+8.9 |
| King & Queen Co. | 0.09 | R+31.6 | 99 | R+31.9 | R+0.3 |
| Richmond Co. | 0.09 | R+35.8 | 91 | R+42.1 | R+6.3 |
| Franklin city | 0.09 | D+15.6 | 67 | D+4.9 | R+10.6 |
| Bland Co. | 0.08 | R+79.3 | 88 | R+73.3 | D+6.1 |
| Buena Vista city | 0.06 | R+48.9 | 99 | R+52.6 | R+3.6 |
| Lexington city | 0.06 | D+22.5 | 95 | D+22.3 | R+0.2 |
| Covington city | 0.06 | R+34.5 | 92 | R+33.8 | D+0.7 |
| Bath Co. | 0.06 | R+58.2 | 95 | R+60.7 | R+2.4 |
| Emporia city | 0.05 | D+26.0 | 76 | D+9.5 | R+16.4 |
| Norton city | 0.04 | R+51.3 | 99 | R+49.1 | D+2.2 |
| Highland Co. | 0.03 | R+55.0 | 99 | R+52.6 | D+2.4 |