What Went Down During The 2021 Elections

With all early votes and some absentee votes counted in the race for Cleveland mayor, progressive Justin Bibb has a healthy lead over moderate Kevin Kelley, 63 percent to 37 percent. A ballot measure to create more police oversight is also passing by a similar margin: 61 percent to 39 percent.

A reminder that in McAuliffe’s last race, the national environment worked in his favor, as voters blamed Republicans for a recent government shutdown. My colleague Alex Clearfield wrote last week about that race and McAuliffe’s rocky record running for office. He might now have the benefit of having won statewide office, but McAuliffe is facing headwinds in a political environment that could easily wipe out that advantage.

This election is a good reminder that polling errors do not necessarily replicate from cycle to cycle in a given state. In 2017, the Virginia governor polling average underestimated Democrats by 5 to 6 percentage points. In 2021, the polling average looks like it will be pretty close, and may even underestimate Republicans by a bit.