What Went Down During The 2021 Elections

We’re all going to be on “narrative” watch tomorrow, and one of the narratives I’m most interested in is the “all the polls are broken” narrative. If the early results are any indication, the polls look like they’re having a good night.

With what appear to be early/absentee votes reporting in the special election for Ohio’s 15th District, Republican Mike Carey leads Democrat Allison Russo 54 percent to 46 percent. With Election Day votes likely to skew Republican, it looks like Carey has this sewn up — but of course, that was expected in this R+19 district. The margin, though, will be yet another data point to throw in the mix as to whether tonight’s results were a good omen for Republicans or Democrats.

Prediction markets (which are sometimes dumb but have been following the polls pretty closely in Virginia) now show McAuliffe with only about a 12 percent chance, which is roughly equivalent (I am contractually obligated to say this because I’m in Las Vegas) of drawing to an inside straight.