What Went Down During The 2021 Elections

It depends on how much the exit polls cheat by pegging results to pre-election poll averages, which they’ve never been entirely transparent about.

But those are not all independent, Nate, right? (Namely, the pre-election polls and the exit poll.) Not arguing with the general sentiment, just nit-picking.

I’d keep in mind that if results reported so far look slightly better for Youngkin, the pre-election polls also looked slightly better for him, as did the exit poll. So while it’s anybody’s race and all of these indicators are tenuous, they do tend to point in the same direction.