What Went Down During The 2021 Elections

But those are not all independent, Nate, right? (Namely, the pre-election polls and the exit poll.) Not arguing with the general sentiment, just nit-picking.

I’d keep in mind that if results reported so far look slightly better for Youngkin, the pre-election polls also looked slightly better for him, as did the exit poll. So while it’s anybody’s race and all of these indicators are tenuous, they do tend to point in the same direction.

McAuliffe also left office when Trump was in office, which benefited the popularity of all kinds of Democrats. I think even de Blasio was popular in 2017.