What Went Down During The 2021 Elections

Again worth repeating that these are preliminary, but some of the reasons McAuliffe might not be so popular is: 1) Democrats are in power and Biden isn’t popular, giving all Democrats an unappealing air; 2) McAuliffe already served as governor and feels unappealing in comparison to a newcomer with no political track record (there is a rich history of the latter being more appealing than the former); and 3) McAuliffe doesn’t poll particularly well on the issues most important to voters. But there’s always a matryoshka doll of reasons people feel the way they do about parties and politicians. The biggest doll is probably … thermostatic public opinion against the party in power.

I have a few theories about that, Sarah. McAuliffe began this campaign and won a nominally competitive primary by focusing on his connections to Biden, which, at the time, worked pretty well. Biden’s approval rating was way above water for most of the first half of the year. And, so soon after the 2020 election, it looked like Biden had drawn a blueprint for other Democrats to be successful. Views of Biden took a major turn at the end of the summer, and I’m not sure if McAuliffe ever created a strong enough brand separate from the president to withstand Biden’s sinking approval numbers.

I think part of it is just keeping in mind that Trump sets a pretty low bar, Alex. Even some voters who thought he was an effective president didn’t necessarily like his personal conduct.