FiveThirtyEight
Leah Askarinam

I have a few theories about that, Sarah. McAuliffe began this campaign and won a nominally competitive primary by focusing on his connections to Biden, which, at the time, worked pretty well. Biden’s approval rating was way above water for most of the first half of the year. And, so soon after the 2020 election, it looked like Biden had drawn a blueprint for other Democrats to be successful. Views of Biden took a major turn at the end of the summer, and I’m not sure if McAuliffe ever created a strong enough brand separate from the president to withstand Biden’s sinking approval numbers.

Nate Silver

I think part of it is just keeping in mind that Trump sets a pretty low bar, Alex. Even some voters who thought he was an effective president didn’t necessarily like his personal conduct.

Alex Samuels

It’s interesting to me that a majority of Virginia voters have long said they have an unfavorable opinion of Trump, but Youngkin fares a lot better on this question. I can’t pinpoint an exact reason for this, but is this just further proof that Youngkin was successful in keeping Trump at bay?


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