What Went Down During The 2021 Elections

It’s interesting to me that a majority of Virginia voters have long said they have an unfavorable opinion of Trump, but Youngkin fares a lot better on this question. I can’t pinpoint an exact reason for this, but is this just further proof that Youngkin was successful in keeping Trump at bay?

As we wait for results, one thing that has stood out to me from the preliminary exit polls is just how underwater McAuliffe’s favorability numbers are compared to Youngkin’s. Per the preliminary exit polls, 45 percent of voters said they see McAuliffe favorably versus 52 percent unfavorably. By contrast, Youngkin is viewed much better — 53 percent see him favorably versus 43 percent who see him unfavorably.

It’s early yet, and these numbers will change, but what are some explanations for why we’re seeing such a stark favorability gap so far?

One note of caution: Don’t be surprised if Youngkin does better than his benchmarks in red, rural counties but McAuliffe does better than his benchmarks in blue, urban/suburban ones. Realignments come atcha fast!