What Went Down During The 2021 Elections

As we wait for results, one thing that has stood out to me from the preliminary exit polls is just how underwater McAuliffe’s favorability numbers are compared to Youngkin’s. Per the preliminary exit polls, 45 percent of voters said they see McAuliffe favorably versus 52 percent unfavorably. By contrast, Youngkin is viewed much better — 53 percent see him favorably versus 43 percent who see him unfavorably.

It’s early yet, and these numbers will change, but what are some explanations for why we’re seeing such a stark favorability gap so far?

One note of caution: Don’t be surprised if Youngkin does better than his benchmarks in red, rural counties but McAuliffe does better than his benchmarks in blue, urban/suburban ones. Realignments come atcha fast!

OK, it looks like we have our first close-to-fully-reporting county in Richmond County, which is a small, rural, conservative county in the Northern Neck region of Virginia that has nothing to do with the capital of Richmond City. With 91 percent of the expected vote in according to ABC News, Youngkin leads there about 70 percent to 29 percent. That 41-point margin is notably better than Trump’s 25-point edge there in 2020.