What Went Down During The 2021 Elections

To Leah’s point, if Youngkin wins, I don’t think the takeaway for many Republicans will be, “We should run candidates that have the profile and resources to distance themselves from Trump.” I think it will more likely be, “2022 is open season on Democrats.” We know Trump will claim full credit for a GOP win tonight, and I’m not sure Republican candidates will want to say anything otherwise, for fear of getting on his bad side.

If the Trump/Youngkin trend Geoffrey referred to keeps up, there’s no guarantee that Republicans can replicate their Virginia strategy in the midterms. State Republicans decided to hold a nominating convention instead of a traditional primary for the governor’s race, ostensibly to prevent Democrats from participating but in reality likely to prevent a candidate like state Sen. Amanda Chase, a self-described “Trump in heels,” from winning the nomination. Republicans could get creative in other states, but in a typical primary — especially in open seats — the candidates that hew closest to Trump might have the best luck. There are a handful of exceptions — happy to get into individual races later — but it’s something to keep in mind as the hot takes begin to pile in.

The Virginia Public Access Project helpfully breaks down votes by whether they are Election Day votes or early/absentee votes. So far, all the votes reporting are Election Day votes (which, remember, are expected to skew Republican).