What Went Down During The 2021 Elections

If the Trump/Youngkin trend Geoffrey referred to keeps up, there’s no guarantee that Republicans can replicate their Virginia strategy in the midterms. State Republicans decided to hold a nominating convention instead of a traditional primary for the governor’s race, ostensibly to prevent Democrats from participating but in reality likely to prevent a candidate like state Sen. Amanda Chase, a self-described “Trump in heels,” from winning the nomination. Republicans could get creative in other states, but in a typical primary — especially in open seats — the candidates that hew closest to Trump might have the best luck. There are a handful of exceptions — happy to get into individual races later — but it’s something to keep in mind as the hot takes begin to pile in.

The Virginia Public Access Project helpfully breaks down votes by whether they are Election Day votes or early/absentee votes. So far, all the votes reporting are Election Day votes (which, remember, are expected to skew Republican).

I think it can be especially easy to trust the exit polls when they tell the story you expected going into the night. We all remember 7 p.m. in 2016. I think part of what we are watching for tonight is whether pre-election polls end up being more accurate with Trump off the ballot. We shall see!!!