What Went Down During The 2021 Elections

As the official provider of cold takes tonight, I suppose I should add that I’m a little skeptical that exit polls are the best way to determine demographic shifts in the Virginia electorate. Exit polls are always fairly imprecise, and particularly as they’re becoming harder to conduct in a world in which more people vote early or absentee, I’d tend to look at precinct- or county-level data instead for a sense of what happened and why.

According to preliminary exit polling data, education issues are still top of mind for commonwealth voters. Data so far shows that about a quarter of voters ranked education as their most important issue. Among those voters, Youngkin was ahead of McAuliffe by almost double-digits, 56 percent to 44 percent. Of course, these numbers shouldn’t be too surprising. Throughout the campaign, Youngkin really mobilized suburban parents’ fears and anger about what kids are taught in schools and repeatedly hit McAuliffe on issues related to K-12 education.

As we’ve discussed, Biden and Trump loomed over this race, and the preliminary exit polls suggest attitudes toward Biden may have been more decisive than those toward Trump. Throughout the campaign, Youngkin tried to walk a tightrope when it came to Trump, despite McAuliffe’s continuous efforts to link the Republican nominee to the former president. Youngkin’s careful approach may have worked for him — and McAuliffe’s efforts failed — as the preliminary exit polls suggest about 1 in 5 voters who have an unfavorable view of Trump backed Youngkin. Meanwhile, Biden is now the president and his weakened national standing undoubtedly played a role in why this race is so close. For McAuliffe, that’s a challenge because the preliminary exit polls show only about 1 in 10 voters who disapproved of Biden voted for McAuliffe.