What Went Down During The 2021 Elections

There may be a pretty weird thing going on in politics today with COVID-19. You would think (I certainly did), that Biden/Democrats would benefit if the COVID-19 picture improved. But, I wonder if that’s wrong because as the pandemic improves it simply recedes as an issue (or morphs, as Leah and Nathaniel were discussing below). Democrats poll better than Republicans on handling the pandemic, and so as case numbers improve the political fight moves from an issue that’s good for Democrats to areas that are tougher for them.

This would also help explain why Biden’s approval rating didn’t rebound as the delta variant surge receded. Of course, the political ramifications of COVID-19 are not the most important ramifications — we’re talking life and death here. But I’m just trying to make sense of how all these issues interact (and affect turnout and vote choice). Thoughts?

Coming into Election Day, there’s no question the Virginia governor’s race is a close one. In FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, Youngkin holds a slim lead over McAuliffe, but at this point, it shouldn’t be a surprise if either candidate wins.

In some ways, this may be surprising because Virginia has looked like a blue state in recent years. After all, Republicans last won a statewide race there in 2009, and Biden carried Virginia by 10 points last November. But the commonwealth is more of a purple state with a slight blue hue, so Republicans can still compete here. This is especially true when a relatively unpopular Democratic president is in office.

It’s also possible we’ll look back and see the rise of education in voters’ choices as a pivotal part of how this race played out. Youngkin has made much of a McAuliffe debate statement where the Democrat said “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach” while defending his veto of a bill in 2016 that would have allowed parents to have their kids “opt out” from reading school books with sexually explicit content. Although voters tend to view Democrats as better on education than Republicans, Youngkin has pulled even or ahead of McAuliffe in the polls on who would best handle the issue.

At the end of such a long and intense campaign season for both Virginia gubernatorial candidates, what were each of their final pitches to voters before polls opened on Election Day?

At his final rally on Monday night, Youngkin emphasized his positions on schools and his contrasts with McAuliffe.

“This is our moment, where we stand up for our children, for our grandchildren, for our nieces, for our nephews, for our neighbors, and we decide that we in fact are going to be in charge of our children’s education,” Youngkin said to cheers. “In order to do this, we have to, we have to break the power out of Richmond. We have to have a moment where power shifts away from the marble halls in Richmond to the kitchen tables around Virginia, to the kitchen tables that are bound together by freedom and liberty.”

Youngkin later portrayed his opponent as trying to restrict people’s liberties.

“Friends, this is a moment where tomorrow we’re gonna see such clear distinctions on the ballot; on one side is Terry McAuliffe, and Terry McAuliffe, we know he wants to put government between parents and our children … Terry McAuliffe thinks that these rights are not absolute. Well, let me tell you: these rights and our Bill of Rights are absolute.”

During his own final rally, McAuliffe continued to tie Youngkin to Trump — a theme McAuliffe has used throughout his campaign.

“Guess how Glenn Youngkin is finishing his campaign? He is doing an event with Donald Trump here in Virginia. I’m here with you. And they’ve got Trump over there,” McAuliffe said.

McAuliffe was referring to a phone rally Trump held for Youngkin the same evening. Youngkin did not participate directly in the phone rally with Trump, and it was not coordinated by Youngkin’s campaign.

Later, McAuliffe emphasized how many times Youngkin has received Trump’s endorsement.

But McAuliffe also spent time during the rally talking about his record when he served as Virginia’s governor from 2014 to 2018.

“In my low-key way, I went in and I replaced the Board of Health, and every single women’s reproductive clinic stayed open here in the commonwealth of Virginia. But had you not worked your heart out [to elect me]? There would not be one women’s clinic opened today,” McAuliffe said.