What Went Down During The 2021 Elections

Yup, agreed, Leah. And yeah, Galen, the “overdue” thought makes sense to me too.

Of course, another way to put all this is, as Leah said: The political winds are likely to blow against Democrats because they have the White House and Congress — the issues may just be secondary to that fact.

I also wonder if this current improvement in the COVID-19 circumstances feels overdue. Early in the summer, Biden was declaring victory over the pandemic after a successful initial vaccine rollout. The message was that people could take their masks off and go back to normal if they were vaccinated. The delta variant really disrupted that, and I think it is hard to declare victory over the pandemic twice.

That’s a great question, Micah. Broadly, I don’t think voters reward politicians for “most improved.” As long as the economy drags and people are still regulating their behavior to avoid spreading COVID-19 — and as long as people continue to die — voters are unlikely to deliver their stamp of approval. This year could be a referendum for Democrats, and whether the problems continuing to afflict the country are their fault are not, Democrats will likely get the brunt of the blame just because they have congressional majorities (albeit narrow ones) and the presidency.