What Went Down During The 2021 Elections

I also wonder if this current improvement in the COVID-19 circumstances feels overdue. Early in the summer, Biden was declaring victory over the pandemic after a successful initial vaccine rollout. The message was that people could take their masks off and go back to normal if they were vaccinated. The delta variant really disrupted that, and I think it is hard to declare victory over the pandemic twice.

That’s a great question, Micah. Broadly, I don’t think voters reward politicians for “most improved.” As long as the economy drags and people are still regulating their behavior to avoid spreading COVID-19 — and as long as people continue to die — voters are unlikely to deliver their stamp of approval. This year could be a referendum for Democrats, and whether the problems continuing to afflict the country are their fault are not, Democrats will likely get the brunt of the blame just because they have congressional majorities (albeit narrow ones) and the presidency.

There may be a pretty weird thing going on in politics today with COVID-19. You would think (I certainly did), that Biden/Democrats would benefit if the COVID-19 picture improved. But, I wonder if that’s wrong because as the pandemic improves it simply recedes as an issue (or morphs, as Leah and Nathaniel were discussing below). Democrats poll better than Republicans on handling the pandemic, and so as case numbers improve the political fight moves from an issue that’s good for Democrats to areas that are tougher for them.

This would also help explain why Biden’s approval rating didn’t rebound as the delta variant surge receded. Of course, the political ramifications of COVID-19 are not the most important ramifications — we’re talking life and death here. But I’m just trying to make sense of how all these issues interact (and affect turnout and vote choice). Thoughts?