What Went Down During The 2021 Elections

That’s a great question, Micah. Broadly, I don’t think voters reward politicians for “most improved.” As long as the economy drags and people are still regulating their behavior to avoid spreading COVID-19 — and as long as people continue to die — voters are unlikely to deliver their stamp of approval. This year could be a referendum for Democrats, and whether the problems continuing to afflict the country are their fault are not, Democrats will likely get the brunt of the blame just because they have congressional majorities (albeit narrow ones) and the presidency.

There may be a pretty weird thing going on in politics today with COVID-19. You would think (I certainly did), that Biden/Democrats would benefit if the COVID-19 picture improved. But, I wonder if that’s wrong because as the pandemic improves it simply recedes as an issue (or morphs, as Leah and Nathaniel were discussing below). Democrats poll better than Republicans on handling the pandemic, and so as case numbers improve the political fight moves from an issue that’s good for Democrats to areas that are tougher for them.

This would also help explain why Biden’s approval rating didn’t rebound as the delta variant surge receded. Of course, the political ramifications of COVID-19 are not the most important ramifications — we’re talking life and death here. But I’m just trying to make sense of how all these issues interact (and affect turnout and vote choice). Thoughts?

Coming into Election Day, there’s no question the Virginia governor’s race is a close one. In FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, Youngkin holds a slim lead over McAuliffe, but at this point, it shouldn’t be a surprise if either candidate wins.

In some ways, this may be surprising because Virginia has looked like a blue state in recent years. After all, Republicans last won a statewide race there in 2009, and Biden carried Virginia by 10 points last November. But the commonwealth is more of a purple state with a slight blue hue, so Republicans can still compete here. This is especially true when a relatively unpopular Democratic president is in office.

It’s also possible we’ll look back and see the rise of education in voters’ choices as a pivotal part of how this race played out. Youngkin has made much of a McAuliffe debate statement where the Democrat said “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach” while defending his veto of a bill in 2016 that would have allowed parents to have their kids “opt out” from reading school books with sexually explicit content. Although voters tend to view Democrats as better on education than Republicans, Youngkin has pulled even or ahead of McAuliffe in the polls on who would best handle the issue.