What Went Down During The 2021 Elections

The preliminary exit poll also suggests that the 2021 electorate voted close to even in the 2020 presidential race, even though we know Biden won Virginia by 10 points last November. There are caveats here, however, in that people aren’t always great at recalling who they voted for in past elections and that, again, these are preliminary exit polls and the numbers could change. Still, we’ve long expected the electorate in Virginia to be somewhat more GOP-friendly than in 2020. With a Democratic president in office, Republicans are frustrated and more motivated to cast a ballot, just as Democrats were during the Trump years. And with Biden’s approval rating nationally in the mid-to-low 40s, that may have provided an extra dollop of energy on the right and depressed turnout on the left, too.

The preliminary exit polls suggest almost three in four voters where white, while a little over one in four were members of racial and ethnic minority groups, which points to a Virginia electorate that is somewhat whiter than the 2020 electorate (although note that exit polls have tended to overstate how diverse the electorate is). We know white voters are more Republican-leaning, so this is good news for Youngkin, and it suggests that one of the worries Democrats had coming into this election — lower turnout among Black voters — may have come to pass.

It’s really fascinating how critical race theory and education issues writ large have become huge issues in the Virginia governor’s race. I thought it was interesting enough that Youngkin pledged to ban CRT in schools on his first day in office, if elected, but recent reporting suggests that Republicans elsewhere are playing off of conservative parent’s fears, too. According to the Associated Press, which cited data from Ballotpedia, there are 76 school districts in 22 states where candidates took a stance on either race in education or critical race theory. I wonder some of these races — Virginia especially — will test the extent to which these fights really animate voters? I could see Republicans during the midterms really doubling-down on this strategy of attacking CRT if Youngkin is successful tonight.