What Went Down During The 2021 Elections

Alex just had a post that detailed the role Trump has had in Virginia’s and New Jersey’s governor races and whether this has been a liability for Republicans or an asset to Democrats.

It’s an interesting question to untangle because since when has a former president still loomed so large in our national politics? But also, for the Republican candidates in these races, they’ve been caught in a bit of a catch-22: Don’t cozy up too close to Trump so as not to alienate more moderate voters in these bluish states, but at the same time don’t put too much distance between themselves and Trump so as not to alienate his base.

And on the flip side, Democrats had a lot of success in making the California recall election a referendum on Trump, but I’m not sure that’s worked as well in Virginia. McAuliffe leaned heavily into this strategy as part of his campaign, but according to the Oct. 20-26 Washington Post/Schar School poll of the race, Youngkin had done a better job consolidating Trump voters (99 percent) than McAuliffe had of Biden voters (89 percent).

I’m curious to hear from you all the extent to which you think Trump is still on the ballot today, and whether that is something that has helped Democrats or is something that Republicans have been able to use to their advantage?

Despite not being on this year’s ballot, Trump is — once again — likely to play an outsized role in tonight’s gubernatorial races. Even though the former president didn’t actively campaign in either of the major elections tonight, Democrats have sought to link their Republican opponents to him anyways.

This dynamic is playing out in Virginia especially, where McAuliffe has accused the Trump-backed Youngkin of being too cozy with the former president, despite Youngkin distancing himself from the Trump name. And in New Jersey, Murphy has sought to portray Ciattarelli as a right-wing acolyte of Trump even though Ciattarelli has clear ties to the GOP establishment and didn’t fully embrace Trump during the Republican gubernatorial primary.

This strategy helped Democrats turnout voters earlier this year in the California recall election as Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom was able to tie his leading Republican challenger, Larry Elder, to the former president. But it’s unclear whether Democrats will be able to replicate their success tonight.

Some analysis suggests that if McAuliffe wins Virginia’s race tonight, he could have Trump to thank as the former president’s approval rating is not particularly high in the state. But polls show a tight race between McAuliffe and Youngkin, and Youngkin so far has been good at holding onto Republican and Trump voters’ support without alienating Democratic voters in the process. In New Jersey, meanwhile, only 22 percent of voters said in a recent poll that they think Ciattarelli is aligned with the Trump wing of the Republican Party.

Lower-turnout elections in off years aren’t perfect measures, but it’ll be interesting to see to what extent Trump motivates voters tonight and whether that will be something that benefits Democrats.

When longtime Democratic Rep. Alcee Hastings of Florida died in April, it fell to Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, to schedule a special election to fill the now-vacant 20th Congressional District.

Some states have strict timelines for filling vacancies: In New Mexico, now-Interior Secretary Deb Haaland resigned just three weeks before Hastings died, but the special election to fill her seat was held five months ago, on June 1.

Florida has no such laws, so DeSantis set a remarkably late date (Jan. 11, 2022), forcing House Democrats — already clinging to a narrow majority — to operate down one vote.

Today’s primary is the real contest in the heavily Democratic Fort Lauderdale/West Palm Beach district. But Hastings had no anointed successor, leading to a fractured field of 11 candidates with only the vaguest of front-runners and a lot of uncertainty.

The top six contenders are Broward County Commissioners Dale Holness and Barbara Sharief, state Sen. Perry Thurston, state Reps. Bobby DuBose and Omari Hardy and health care executive Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick. The most recent public poll of the race (only the third all year) found Cherfilus-McCormick, Holness and Sharief bunched up at the top, at 15 percent, 14 percent and 13 percent, respectively, with Thurston close behind at 10 percent, and DuBose (6 percent) and Hardy (5 percent) further back.

Holness, Thurston and DuBose are running as more conventional candidates in the mold of Hastings, who was a feature of the South Florida political establishment. Sharief, a nurse practitioner, is running on her medical background and is one of two women in the race’s top tier; she also has some national support, from EMILY’s List and 314 Action.

Meanwhile, Hardy, an outspoken progressive with a large social media presence, has tried to market himself as “South Florida’s AOC.” But he’s the worst fundraiser of the top six candidates, and while he is getting some late help from a new Super PAC, it may be too little, too late.

And Cherfilus-McCormick, who lost no-shot primary bids against Hastings in 2018 and 2020, has spent millions of her own dollars — an amount equal to almost much as the rest of the field has spent combined.

In a low-turnout special election, that kind of advertising presence makes her a wild card.