What Went Down During The 2021 Elections

And, Ryan, obviously that helps play into that “political outsider” everyman persona he’s tried to hone, similar to Trump’s branding among his supporters. Part of what they’ve always loved about Trump is that he is explicitly not a lifelong politician.

Amelia, I think a lot of that comes down to Biden being president. With a Democrat in the White House and all else being equal, the average Republican is more likely to show up than the average Democrat. This “differential turnout” helps explain why the out party tends to do better in non-presidential years, as does having an unpopular president, which may heighten the presidential penalty for the White House party. These factors help Youngkin unify and energize the base, just as Democrats were unified and motivated to turn out when Trump was in office.

One advantage Youngkin has had in balancing appealing to Trump voters and swing voters is that he doesn’t have a long background in politics, because of his business background. We can imagine, for example, that maybe he would have opposed Trump in the 2016 Republican presidential primary. Something like that could have hurt him with the base. And in a similar vein, he doesn’t have a legislative background that Democrats can pick apart when attacking him on policy.