What Went Down During The 2021 Elections
That’s a really good point, Amelia. But if that Washington Post poll is to be believed, the answer seems to be … yes.
I mentioned this on the podcast earlier this week, but one quote that really stood out to me in the write up of the Washington Post poll was a quote from Jane Sellers, an independent voter who backed Biden in 2020 but planned to now support Youngkin. She said, on the question of election fraud and how Youngkin has flirted with it, “I don’t see him as being as crazy and out there. He is being supported by the Republican Party, so he’s got to spout some of that stuff that the Republican Party feeds him. And I understand that.”
It makes me wonder how many other voters are going through that same calculation in Virginia — Youngkin is Trumpy, but he’s not that Trumpy — and so maybe some people who were on the fence about Trump in 2020 won’t have the same reservations about someone like Youngkin.
It’ll be interesting to see if Youngkin is successful at motivating Trump voters despite the fact that, as Alex mentioned, Youngkin has kind of distanced himself from Trump since the primary. It’s sort of the flip side of your question, Sarah — can Republicans marshal Trump voters’ enthusiasm without going full Trump themselves?
Alex just had a post that detailed the role Trump has had in Virginia’s and New Jersey’s governor races and whether this has been a liability for Republicans or an asset to Democrats.
It’s an interesting question to untangle because since when has a former president still loomed so large in our national politics? But also, for the Republican candidates in these races, they’ve been caught in a bit of a catch-22: Don’t cozy up too close to Trump so as not to alienate more moderate voters in these bluish states, but at the same time don’t put too much distance between themselves and Trump so as not to alienate his base.
And on the flip side, Democrats had a lot of success in making the California recall election a referendum on Trump, but I’m not sure that’s worked as well in Virginia. McAuliffe leaned heavily into this strategy as part of his campaign, but according to the Oct. 20-26 Washington Post/Schar School poll of the race, Youngkin had done a better job consolidating Trump voters (99 percent) than McAuliffe had of Biden voters (89 percent).
I’m curious to hear from you all the extent to which you think Trump is still on the ballot today, and whether that is something that has helped Democrats or is something that Republicans have been able to use to their advantage?