What Went Down During The 2021 Elections

It’ll be interesting to see if Youngkin is successful at motivating Trump voters despite the fact that, as Alex mentioned, Youngkin has kind of distanced himself from Trump since the primary. It’s sort of the flip side of your question, Sarah — can Republicans marshal Trump voters’ enthusiasm without going full Trump themselves?

Alex just had a post that detailed the role Trump has had in Virginia’s and New Jersey’s governor races and whether this has been a liability for Republicans or an asset to Democrats.

It’s an interesting question to untangle because since when has a former president still loomed so large in our national politics? But also, for the Republican candidates in these races, they’ve been caught in a bit of a catch-22: Don’t cozy up too close to Trump so as not to alienate more moderate voters in these bluish states, but at the same time don’t put too much distance between themselves and Trump so as not to alienate his base.

And on the flip side, Democrats had a lot of success in making the California recall election a referendum on Trump, but I’m not sure that’s worked as well in Virginia. McAuliffe leaned heavily into this strategy as part of his campaign, but according to the Oct. 20-26 Washington Post/Schar School poll of the race, Youngkin had done a better job consolidating Trump voters (99 percent) than McAuliffe had of Biden voters (89 percent).

I’m curious to hear from you all the extent to which you think Trump is still on the ballot today, and whether that is something that has helped Democrats or is something that Republicans have been able to use to their advantage?

Despite not being on this year’s ballot, Trump is — once again — likely to play an outsized role in tonight’s gubernatorial races. Even though the former president didn’t actively campaign in either of the major elections tonight, Democrats have sought to link their Republican opponents to him anyways.

This dynamic is playing out in Virginia especially, where McAuliffe has accused the Trump-backed Youngkin of being too cozy with the former president, despite Youngkin distancing himself from the Trump name. And in New Jersey, Murphy has sought to portray Ciattarelli as a right-wing acolyte of Trump even though Ciattarelli has clear ties to the GOP establishment and didn’t fully embrace Trump during the Republican gubernatorial primary.

This strategy helped Democrats turnout voters earlier this year in the California recall election as Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom was able to tie his leading Republican challenger, Larry Elder, to the former president. But it’s unclear whether Democrats will be able to replicate their success tonight.

Some analysis suggests that if McAuliffe wins Virginia’s race tonight, he could have Trump to thank as the former president’s approval rating is not particularly high in the state. But polls show a tight race between McAuliffe and Youngkin, and Youngkin so far has been good at holding onto Republican and Trump voters’ support without alienating Democratic voters in the process. In New Jersey, meanwhile, only 22 percent of voters said in a recent poll that they think Ciattarelli is aligned with the Trump wing of the Republican Party.

Lower-turnout elections in off years aren’t perfect measures, but it’ll be interesting to see to what extent Trump motivates voters tonight and whether that will be something that benefits Democrats.