FiveThirtyEight
Julia Wolfe

With those final projections for Georgia and North Carolina, the 2020 election map is settled. Biden takes 306 electoral votes to Trump’s 232.

Nathaniel Rakich

With those two projections, the presidential map is now settled: Biden will win 306 electoral votes, and Trump will win 232. Right now, Biden is leading in Georgia 49.5 percent to 49.2 percent; the state has begun a hand recount of those results (expected to wrap up by Wednesday), but Biden’s win is not expected to change. Meanwhile, it’s a mild surprise that Trump has won North Carolina, after our model gave him just a 36 in 100 chance to prevail here. But he ended up winning 50.0 percent to 48.6 percent, per the current unofficial tally.

Fivey Fox

ABC News projects that Joe Biden will win Georgia and Donald Trump will win North Carolina (😮).

Geoffrey Skelley

Also last night, ABC News projected that Democratic Rep. Lauren Underwood will win reelection in Illinois’s 14th Congressional District. Underwood leads Republican Jim Oberweis by just 1 point in the suburban seat outside Chicago, but looks good to hold onto her slim advantage.

Nathaniel Rakich

Good morning! Late last night, ABC News projected that Biden will win Arizona. After some more results from Maricopa County were released, Biden’s lead stands at 11,434 votes, and there are only about 10,000 ballots left to count statewide. Biden becomes the first Democrat to carry Arizona since 1996; he now has 290 electoral votes.

Nathaniel Rakich

An Update On The 3 Remaining States In The Presidential Race, As Of Nov. 12

Here’s the latest on the three states where we still don’t know the winner of the presidential race (although, to be clear, none of this would change the main takeaway — Biden has won the election, we’re just tracking the final electoral vote tally at this point):

  • Arizona: Biden currently leads by 11,390 votes, but an estimated 19,000 ballots (mostly provisional ballots) still need to be counted. Trump needs to win about 80 percent of those (or more) to pull into the lead — a very tall order — and other media outlets have already projected Biden the winner here. Arizona should wrap up counting in the next couple days, with tonight’s vote dump from Maricopa County (Phoenix) expected to be the last.
  • North Carolina: Trump currently leads here by 73,244 votes. There are potentially as many as 137,000 votes left to count, but that includes 92,300 absentee ballots that were mailed to voters but haven’t yet been received by election officials (many of them were probably never mailed back) as well as more than 20,000 provisional ballots. So there may simply not be enough votes to erase Biden’s deficit. Counties will release the results of late-arriving absentee ballots through Friday, and the provisional ballots will be tallied by the end of the week as well.
  • Georgia: With almost all of the vote counted, Biden is up here by 14,057 votes, or 0.3 percentage points. The state has announced that, as part of a routine audit of the results, it will take the unusual step of recounting the entire presidential race by hand before results are certified on Nov. 20. If at that point Biden is still leading by less than 1 percentage point, Trump’s campaign can request another recount. However, given Biden’s relatively large lead, it would be very difficult for either recount to reverse the result.
Presidential races we’re still waiting on

Share of the expected vote reported, by race and the leading party’s current margin

View more!

Source: ABC News

Geoffrey Skelley

A race that had seemed resolved appears to be back in play. Major media outlets had projected New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District to remain in Democratic hands, but at least 38,000 votes still have to be counted in the district as New Jersey voted by mail this year. And because the final votes being counted in New Jersey have been trending Republican, Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski’s lead over Republican Tom Kean Jr. has been shrinking. According to ABC News figures, Malinowski only leads by around 6,500 votes. So this could prove to be a late, happy surprise for House Republicans, who already have a lot to be happy about despite Democrats holding onto their majority.

Tony Chow

You’re going to be hearing a lot about the two Georgia Senate runoffs that will take place early next year. Here’s Galen Druke and Perry Bacon Jr. with a quick primer, talking about how both parties are already campaigning in the state and what their respective strategies appear to be.

Geoffrey Skelley

Democratic Rep. Max Rose just conceded to Republican Nicole Malliotakis in New York’s 11th Congressional District, around the same time ABC News projected the race for the GOP challenger. The vote count isn’t finished, but Malliotakis currently leads by 16 points in the Staten Island-based district. Far and away the most Republican-leaning district in New York City — Trump won here by 10 points in 2016 — Rose pulled an upset to win it in 2018 but was unable to win reelection. This marks the 10th seat that Republicans have flipped so far (nine Democratic districts and one Libertarian seat), and Malliotakis is the eighth Republican woman to win a Democratic-held seat.

Fivey Fox

ABC News projects a Republican win in NY-11 (😮).

Geoffrey Skelley

The closest House race in the nation appears to be headed to a recount, as Democrat Rita Hart plans to request a recount across the 24 counties in Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District. Hart trails Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks by fewer than 50 votes, and the lead has bounced back and forth a few times in recent days as counties double-checked their returns. This is a race to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack, but it sounds like it will be a bit before we know whether the outcome will be a Republican flip or a Democratic hold.

Nathaniel Rakich

Last night, Maricopa County, Arizona, released 13,143 more ballots, and Trump won them 53 percent to 44 percent — well behind the pace he needed. There are now, at most, 25,000 ballots remaining to be counted statewide, and Biden leads Arizona by 11,635. While ABC News has not yet projected a winner, last night Decision Desk HQ joined Fox News and the Associated Press in doing so.

Nathaniel Rakich

An Update On The 3 Remaining States In The Presidential Race, As Of Nov. 11

Here’s today’s update on the three states where we still don’t know the winner of the presidential race (although, to be clear, none of this would change the main takeaway — Biden has won the election, we’re just tracking the final electoral vote tally at this point):

  • Arizona: Biden currently leads by 12,813 votes, but an estimated 46,000 ballots (including 28,000 provisional ballots) still need to be counted. Trump needs to win about 64 percent of those (or more) to pull into the lead, a goal that looks increasingly unattainable. Arizona is still releasing results at a regular pace, with the next big drop from Maricopa County due late tonight — perhaps later than 10 p.m. Eastern.
  • North Carolina: Trump currently leads here by 73,276 votes. There are potentially as many as 137,000 votes left to count, but that includes 92,300 absentee ballots that were mailed to voters but haven’t yet been received by election officials (many of them were probably never mailed back) as well as more than 20,000 provisional ballots. So there may simply not be enough votes to erase Biden’s deficit. Counties will release the results of late-arriving absentee ballots through Friday, and the provisional ballots will be tallied by the end of the week as well.
  • Georgia: With almost all of the vote counted, Biden is up here by 14,093 votes, or 0.3 percentage points. The state has announced that, as part of a routine audit of the results, it will take the unusual step of recounting the entire presidential race by hand before results are certified on Nov. 20. If at that point Biden is still leading by less than 1 percentage point, Trump’s campaign can request another recount. However, given Biden’s relatively large lead, it would be very difficult for either recount to reverse the result.
Presidential races we’re still waiting on

Share of the expected vote reported, by race and the leading party’s current margin

View more!

Source: ABC News

Nathaniel Rakich

You’ve probably heard that Georgia — where Biden currently leads Trump by 14,093 votes, or 0.3 percentage points — is going to a recount. Today, we got a bit more detail on what that will look like. Under pressure from his fellow Republicans, who have called for his resignation for unspecified “mismanagement,” the secretary of state announced that the state would conduct a hand recount of the presidential race as part of a legally required audit of the results before the state’s Nov. 20 certification deadline. While the audit itself is routine, the fact that the recount will be by hand instead of by machine is highly unusual and will be a major logistical challenge for counties to complete in the next nine days. In addition, the Trump campaign can request another recount within two days of certification if the margin remains within 1 percentage point. Either recount is highly unlikely to reverse the outcome of the election, given that recounts typically change the results by only a few hundred votes.

Geoffrey Skelley

ABC News has also projected the race in California’s 34th Congressional District for the Democrats. That’s not surprising, though — the only two candidates on the ballot were Democrats!

Rep. Jimmy Gomez defeated David Kim in the intraparty battle, although it was somewhat close. The incumbent only held on by about 6 points, 53 percent to 47 percent.

Fivey Fox

ABC News projects a Democratic win in CA-34.

Nathaniel Rakich

That’s right, Fivey. Alaska released another batch of votes overnight, and Trump still leads there 57 percent to 39 percent, while Sullivan still leads 57 percent to 38 percent. Since Biden and Gross aren’t making up their deficits quickly enough, our colleagues at ABC News have decided to project both races for the Republicans.

That’s not too surprising in the presidential race, but some Democrats had pegged Alaska as a potential sleeper race in the Senate. That clearly didn’t pan out. And with that projection, the Senate now sits at 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, with control set to be decided by the two Georgia runoffs in January.

Fivey Fox

ABC News projects that Republican Dan Sullivan will win the Senate race in Alaska.

Fivey Fox

ABC News projects that Donald Trump will win Alaska.

Nathaniel Rakich

Alaska just released about 50,000 ballots’ worth of results — about a third of what had been outstanding. And it wasn’t nearly as good for Democrats as they needed. Sullivan’s lead in the Senate race went from 57,810 votes to 52,995; Trump’s lead went from 54,598 votes to 47,767. Don’t be surprised if these races are projected for Republicans soon.

Nathaniel Rakich

The vote drops from Maricopa County, Arizona, are getting smaller — tonight’s had only 5,291 votes — but not much better for Trump. He needs to win at least 64 percent of the remaining votes at this point to win. He won just 56 percent of this batch.

Geoffrey Skelley

As Votes Are Counted, Republicans Continue To Make Gains In The House

The news just keeps getting better and better for the GOP in the House. While Democrats will retain their House majority, two more projections by ABC News today gave the GOP a pickup in a Democratic-held seat as well as an important hold in a suburban district that Democrats had hoped to capture. In California’s Orange County-based 48th District, Republican Michelle Steel defeated Democratic Rep. Harley Rouda, winning back a seat the GOP lost in 2018. Meanwhile, in Texas’s 24th Congressional District in Dallas-Fort Worth, Republican Beth Van Duyne defeated Democrat Candace Valenzuela in an open-seat race. Democrats had hoped to make inroads here after their Texas surge in 2018, but Van Duyne held Valenzuela off to retain the seat for the GOP. But there are still 13 House contests to keep an eye on, as you can see in the table below. (There’s also an impending runoff in a heavily GOP Louisiana seat and an all-Democratic race still outstanding in California). And in some of these contests, Republicans now find themselves with narrow leads.
House races we’re still waiting on

Share of the expected vote reported, by race and the leading party’s current margin

View more!

Source: ABC News

  • Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District: Perhaps the closest race in the country, Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks now leads Democrat Rita Hart by fewer than 50 votes in an open seat held by retiring Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack. The state accepted mail ballots up through Monday, Nov. 9, so it’s unclear if a handful of additional ballots may still be added to the count. But as the current margin is just 0.01 percentage points (!), Hart could request a recount paid for by the state. In other words, it could be a bit before we know the final outcome here.
  • Utah’s 4th Congressional District: Republican Burgess Owens now has a narrow 0.2-point edge over Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams, or less than 700 votes, according to ABC News. It’s unclear just how many votes are left to count here — Utah is an all-mail voting state — but most outstanding ballots appear to be from Salt Lake County, the most Democratic-leaning part of the district. Whether that will be enough to help McAdams remains to be seen.
  • Illinois’s 14th Congressional District: Democratic Rep. Lauren Underwood leads Republican Jim Oberweis by 0.3 points in this suburban Chicago district. But the state’s receipt deadline for ballots mailed by Election Day is Nov. 17, so a few more votes may trickle in. Some other outlets have already declared Underwood the winner, however.
  • Three California races: California often sees a large number of votes counted in the days following the election, which sometimes leads to sizable shifts in vote margins. This is due in part to California’s generous mail ballot receipt deadline (Nov. 20), so more votes may arrive in the coming days. There are three Democrat vs. Republican races where ABC News has not yet made a projection. Democrats have a slight 0.4-point lead in California’s 25th Congressional District, which the GOP flipped in a May 2020 special election. But Republican Rep. Mike Garcia and Democrat Christy Smith have been trading leads here as the vote count progresses, so it’s anyone’s guess how it’ll finish. Meanwhile the GOP holds narrow leads in the California 21st and 39th congressional districts, but it’s unclear how those races will pan out — multiple counties in the 21st District have more ballots to process, while Orange County has around 28,000 ballots left to count, some of which will be in the 39th District. And Kings County in the 21st District just announced that it’s suspending canvassing operations until Nov. 21 because of an exposure to COVID-19, so don’t be surprised if it’s one of the last House seats where we know who won.
  • Seven New York races: Many New York counties won’t begin counting mail ballots until this week — the state’s ballot receipt deadline is Nov. 10 — and as at least 1.2 million mail votes were cast, so a lot could change in the seven House races where we don’t know who won. This is especially true as Democrats were much more likely to say they planned to vote by mail than Republicans. Democratic incumbents in the state’s 3rd, 11th and 22nd congressional districts will have to hope that there are enough Democratic votes left to count that they can overcome their current deficits; otherwise, the GOP’s most productive state for House gains in 2020 could be New York.
Nathaniel Rakich

Senate Update, Nov. 10

Other than the two Georgia Senate races — which are going to runoffs on Jan. 5 — only one Senate race remains unresolved:

  • Alaska: With all Election Day votes and most early votes counted, Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan leads Democrat Al Gross 62 percent to 32 percent, or a margin of 57,810 votes. However, between 145,000 and 156,000 ballots remain to be counted (mostly absentees), so it’s not over yet. These results will start getting released at 9 p.m. Eastern, and if they’re not very good for Gross, we could get a projection soon.
Nathaniel Rakich

An Update On The 4 Remaining States In The Presidential Race, As Of Nov. 10

Here’s the latest on the four states where we still don’t know the winner of the presidential race (although, to be clear, none of this would change the main takeaway — Biden has won the election, we’re just tracking the final electoral vote tally at this point):
  • Arizona: Biden currently leads by 14,468 votes, but an estimated 58,000 ballots (including 33,000 provisional ballots) still need to be counted. Trump needs to win about 63 percent of those (or more) to pull into the lead, a goal that looks increasingly unattainable. Arizona is still releasing results at a regular pace, with the next big drop from Maricopa County due at 9 p.m. Eastern.
  • Alaska: Alaska has counted every Election Day vote and early in-person votes cast by Oct. 29, and Trump leads these ballots by 54,598 votes. However, there are still between 145,000 and 156,000 ballots left to count, meaning Biden’s path to a win here is steep but not impossible. Those remaining results will begin to be announced at 9 p.m. Eastern tonight.
  • North Carolina: Trump currently leads here by 74,870 votes. There are potentially as many as 144,000 votes left to count, but that includes 93,000 absentee ballots that were mailed to voters but haven’t yet been received by election officials (many of them were probably never mailed back) as well as 23,000 provisional ballots. So there may simply not be enough votes to erase Biden’s deficit. Counties will release the results of late-arriving absentee ballots through Friday, and the provisional ballots will be tallied by the end of the week as well.
  • Georgia: With almost all of the vote counted, Biden is up here by 12,651 votes, or 0.3 percentage points. That’s close enough that Trump’s campaign can request a recount, which would take place after the state’s Nov. 20 certification deadline and take about two weeks. However, it would be unprecedented in modern times for a recount to reverse such a wide margin.
Presidential races we’re still waiting on

Share of the expected vote reported, by race and the leading party’s current margin

View more!

Source: ABC News

Nathaniel Rakich

And there’s the official projection of the Senate race in North Carolina from our colleagues at ABC News. The outcome here certainly comes as a surprise; Cunningham led in the polls all cycle long — even after it was revealed that he had sexted with a woman who was not his wife — and he ended with a 68 in 100 chance of winning, according to the Deluxe version of our forecast. Despite high initial hopes from Democrats who recruited him, the military veteran and former state senator ended up underperforming Biden in the state.

Fivey Fox

ABC News projects that Republican Thom Tillis will win the Senate race in North Carolina (😮).

Nathaniel Rakich

CNN is reporting that Cunningham has conceded the North Carolina Senate race. Tillis’s presumptive victory means Republicans will now have at least 49 senators in the next Congress.

Nathaniel Rakich

While ABC News has yet to project either race, Decision Desk HQ has projected that Trump and Tillis will win North Carolina in the presidential and Senate races, respectively. After some minor updates today, Trump leads by 74,870 votes and Tillis leads by 95,156.

Geoffrey Skelley

Republican Michelle Steel has defeated Democratic Rep. Harley Rouda in California’s 48th Congressional District. Rouda flipped this Orange County-based seat in 2018 for the Democrats, but Steel has brought it back into the Republican column. Steel’s victory also adds to the strong showing by Republican women in House battleground districts: Of the eight Democrat-held seats that Republicans have flipped so far, Republican women are responsible for seven of them.

Fivey Fox

ABC News projects a Republican win in CA-48 (😮).

Geoffrey Skelley

ABC News has projected that Republican Beth Van Duyne will defeat Democrat Candace Valenzuela in Texas’s 24 Congressional District, where Van Duyne leads by a little more than 1 percentage point. The suburban Dallas-Forth Worth district had been a top target for Democrats, especially once Republican Rep. Kenny Marchant retired and left the seat open. But with this projection, we’ve got a winner in every House seat in Texas, and the end result was no change for either party from 2018. Considering Texas Democrats had hoped to build on their strong performance in the midterms by gaining more seats in the state, this was a very successful outcome for Texas Republicans.

Fivey Fox

ABC News projects a Republican win in TX-24.

Tony Chow

In case you missed it, here’s yesterday’s podcast episode — we had an in-depth discussion about where the rest of the races stood and how the two parties are reacting to the results so far.

Nathaniel Rakich

In North Carolina, where the presidential and Senate races are still unresolved, county boards of elections have begun to meet and release results from the mail-in ballots that are still trickling in. More 30,000 new ballots had come in as of Friday, and as many as 94,900 ballots were mailed out to voters but hadn’t been received as of Monday morning (of course, many of those ballots may turn out not to have been cast). In addition, 40,766 provisional ballots have yet to be checked; in 2016, 44 percent of provisional ballots ended up counting. Those results will be released on Thursday or Friday.

Nathaniel Rakich

We’ll also get our first peek at absentee ballots in Alaska starting at 9 p.m. Eastern tonight. Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan leads Democrat Al Gross by 57,810 votes there with between 145,712 and 156,442 ballots left to count.

Nathaniel Rakich

Last night, Maricopa County, Arizona, released the results of more than 6,000 additional ballots, and they broke down pretty evenly: 50 percent for Trump, 48 percent for Biden. Considering that Trump is currently trailing in Arizona, he needs to do a lot better than that if he wants to win the state’s 11 electoral votes. While ABC News still has not projected a winner in Arizona, analysts generally agree that it has gone from “lean Biden” to “likely Biden” in recent days. Given that Biden now leads statewide by 14,746 votes, Trump would need to win 62 percent or more of the 62,000 uncounted ballots to win. And, considering that 37,000 of those ballots are provisional (and therefore some of them might be ruled invalid), the true number of remaining votes is probably significantly less.

Nathaniel Rakich

We have an update from Alaska, which now says there are 157,209 uncounted ballots — up from 134,664 yesterday (the difference is likely explained by the fact that absentee ballots are still trickling in). That makes Biden’s and Gross’s path to winning a little bit easier, though it would still require an impressive comeback. Biden needs to win more than 67 percent of the outstanding ballots, while Gross needs to win more than 68 percent.

Nathaniel Rakich

Looks like we won’t get our next batch of results from Maricopa County, Arizona, until 9 p.m. Eastern. And it doesn’t sound like a very big batch, either. So it could be a while before we know the winner in Arizona.

Geoffrey Skelley

The Size Of The Democrats’ House Majority Rests On These 17 Races

Editors note: Since publication, the numbers provided by ABC News have changed in IL-14; the post has been updated to reflect that.

Major media outlets, including ABC News (which owns FiveThirtyEight), projected on election night that the House of Representatives would remain in the Democrats’ hands. However, it’s not the cushy majority Democrats were hoping for — Republicans have actually made net gains, so far picking up five seats. But will they gain even more seats? That’s the question for the nearly 20 outstanding contests where ABC News hasn’t made a projection.

House races we’re still waiting on

Share of the expected vote reported, by race and the leading party’s current margin

View more!

Source: ABC News

  • Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District: Perhaps the closest race in the country, Democrat Rita Hart leads by fewer than 200 votes against Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks in an open seat held by retiring Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack. The current margin is just 0.04 percentage points, so Miller-Meeks could request a recount paid for by the state, so it could be a bit before we know the final outcome here.
  • Utah’s 4th Congressional District: Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams narrowly leads Republican challenger Burgess Owens by about 0.5 points. It’s unclear just how many votes are left to count here — Utah is an all-mail voting state — but they may be more promising for McAdams than not, as it appears most of the remaining votes are probably from Salt Lake County, the most Democratic-leaning part of the district.
  • Texas’s 24th Congressional District: Republican Beth Van Duyne leads Democrat Candace Valenzuela by 1.3 points in this suburban Dallas-Fort Worth district left open by retiring Republican Rep. Kenny Marchant. Van Duyne may hold on, but a few thousand mail and provisional ballots, as well as military and overseas ballots, have kept a winner from being projected.
  • Six California races: California often sees a large number of votes counted in the days following the election and sometimes sizable shifts in vote margins. This is due in part to California’s generous mail ballot receipt deadline (Nov. 20), so more votes may arrive in the coming days that were cast by Election Day. As such, there are six Democrat vs. Republican races where ABC News has no projection (a seventh involves two Democrats). The closest are three Democratic-held seats the party won in 2018 (the 21st, 39th and 48th congressional districts) and one that the GOP flipped in a May 2020 special election (the 25th Congressional District). Republicans currently lead in all four, but considering the Democratic lean of the final ballots counted in 2018 that helped put Democrats over the top in some of these districts, it remains to be seen if the current GOP leads will hold.
  • Seven New York races: Many New York counties won’t begin counting mail ballots until this week — the state’s ballot receipt deadline is Nov. 10 — and as at least 1.2 million mail votes were cast, so a lot could change in the state’s seven House races where we don’t know who won. This is especially true as Democrats were much more likely to say they planned to vote by mail than Republicans. Democratic incumbents in the state’s 3rd, 11th and 22nd congressional districts will have to hope that enough Democratic votes are left to count to overcome their current deficits; otherwise, the GOP’s most productive state for House gains in 2020 could be New York.
Fivey Fox

I’m Back Tracking Outstanding Races But Here Are The Races That Have Surprised, Shocked And Completely Blown My Little Fox Mind

Results took longer than usual this year — and still, not every race has a projection. I know that was suspenseful for a lot of people following along. But there’s something you should know about how I report projections. I’ll let you in on a little secret: I’m a bit of an emotional fox — at least as it concerns probability. That’s why I use FiveThirtyEight’s final forecast to contextualize the results — is this what we anticipated or were we surprised? And if we were surprised, based on our final forecast, I might react as such. For example:

  • If our final forecast listed a candidate as “slightly favored,” meaning that the forecast gave them somewhere between a 55 and 70 percent chance of winning, but one of their opponents wins, I will be surprised (😮) when I share the projection.
  • If our final forecast listed a candidate as “favored,” giving them between a 70 and 90 percent chance of winning, but one of their opponents is projected as winning, I will be shocked (😲).
  • And finally, if our final forecast listed a candidate as either “clearly favored” or “very likely” to win, meaning they had over a 90 percent chance of winning, but they still are projected to lose, my little fox mind will be completely blown (🤯).

And there have been a handful of races that have surprised me so far. Take Trump’s victories in Florida and in Maine’s 2nd District. They surprised (😮) me, but the remaining presidential races have gone as I expected so far. Similarly, Collins’s victory in Maine’s Senate race also came as a surprise to me — as did Nancy Mace’s win in South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District and Yvette Herrell’s win in New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District. And while most of the wins I found surprising so far were Republican wins, Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux’s win in Georgia’s 7th Congressional District also surprised me because our final forecast had her Republican opponent slightly favored to win.

I was more than surprised by a few outcomes, though. I was shocked (😲) by some House races. For example, Carlos Gimenez’s projected victory in Florida’s 26th District and Maria Elvira Salazar’s win in Florida’s 27th District shocked me. These were two Republican challengers that unseated Democratic incumbents we had listed as “favored” in our final forecast. Also, Republican Ashley Hinson’s projected win in Iowa’s 1st District and Republican Tony Gonzales’s projected win in Texas’s 23rd District shocked me.


No race has yet blown my mind (🤯), though. It is important to note, however, that ABC News has not yet projected the result of the presidential races in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Alaska. And while we know both Senate races in Georgia will go to a runoff, the network still hasn’t projected a few other Senate and House races either. So I’ll be right here on our new live blog for these races, bringing you projections from ABC News as they trickle in. And if any of these results are surprising (😮), shocking (😲) or mind-blowing (🤯) — you know I won’t be able to contain my reaction as I share the projections with you!

Nathaniel Rakich

Control Of The Senate Looks As If It’ll Hinge On Georgia

Other than the two Georgia Senate races — which are going to runoffs on Jan. 5 — two other Senate races remain unresolved:

  • Alaska: With all Election Day votes and most early votes counted, Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan leads Democratic nominee Al Gross 63 percent to 32 percent, or by a margin of 53,733 votes. However, 134,664 ballots remain to be counted (mostly absentees), so it’s not over yet. These ballots legally can’t be counted until Nov. 10 at the earliest, though, so we’ll be waiting until at least Wednesday for a projection.
  • North Carolina: Republican Sen. Thom Tillis currently leads Democrat Cal Cunningham 49 percent to 47 percent (a margin of 95,720 votes), with as many as 171,666 provisional and mail-in votes left to count. However, because many of those ballots won’t be found valid, Tillis is in great shape to hold onto his lead. We will likely know more here after Nov. 12, the deadline for mail-in ballots to arrive.
Senate races we’re still waiting on

Share of the expected vote reported, by race and the leading party’s current margin

View more!

Source: ABC News

Nathaniel Rakich

Tracking The 4 Remaining States In The Presidential Race

There are four states where we still don’t know who won (although, to be clear, none of this would change the topline takeaway — Biden has won the election, we’re just tracking the final electoral vote tally at this point):

  • First up, Arizona. Biden currently leads by 16,985 votes, but an estimated 77,000 ballots (including 41,000 provisional ballots) still need to be counted. Trump is an underdog in this race, but it’s not totally implausible that he could still pick up Arizona. He needs to win about 61 percent of those (or more) to pull into the lead, but he’s been falling short of that so far. Arizona is still releasing results at a regular pace, so we may get an answer here soon.
  • Next up, Alaska. Alaska has counted every Election Day vote and every early in-person vote cast by Oct. 29, and Trump leads these ballots by 51,382 votes. However, Alaska won’t start to count the remaining 134,664 absentee and late-cast early votes until Nov. 10. Biden’s path to a win here is steep, but it’s not impossible. However, we won’t likely know who won until Wednesday at the earliest.
  • It’s slow going in North Carolina, too. Trump currently leads here by 75,407 votes. However, the state has announced that about 130,900 mail-in ballots and 40,766 provisional ballots are potentially outstanding, although not all of those mail-in ballots will arrive on time, and not all of those provisionals will be found to be valid. Mail-in ballots have until Nov. 12 to arrive, and at that point more results will be released.
  • And finally, Georgia. With almost all of the vote counted, Biden is up here by 10,498 votes, or 0.2 percentage points. That falls within the state’s recount range and the secretary of state has already said that the race will go to a recount, but it would be unprecedented in modern times for a recount to reverse such a wide margin.
Presidential races we’re still waiting on

Share of the expected vote reported, by race and the leading party’s current margin

View more!

Source: ABC News

Sarah Frostenson

Welcome To Our Unresolved Races Live Blog

Joe Biden clinched 270 votes in the Electoral College on Saturday, putting him over the edge and on track to win the presidency, but there are still a handful of states where we don’t know who won, not to mention a number of Senate and House races where the outcome is unknown.

We’ll be tracking all that and more on this live blog. But keep in mind, we don’t expect the topline in any of these races to change: Biden is still projected to win the presidency (it’s just a question of what his final electoral map looks like) and Democrats will retain a majority in the House (if by a slimmer margin than they hoped).

The real question here is who will control the Senate. It’s possible (although unlikely) Democrats pull out victories in Alaska and North Carolina, so it increasingly seems as if two Georgia Senate runoffs in January will determine who controls the chamber. We’ll be tracking that in the days to come, so follow along here! And ping us @538politics if you have any questions.


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