FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

That’s A Wrap!

Today marks four weeks since Election Day, and we still don’t have complete election results. In fairness, there is a lot we do know: We know that (barring the stray faithless elector) Joe Biden will win 306 electoral votes and President Trump will win 232. We know that the next Senate will have at least 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats (counting the two independents who caucus with Democrats). And we know that Democrats will have at least 222 seats and Republicans will have at least 211 (including Louisiana’s 5th District, which is going to a Republican-vs.-Republican runoff on Dec. 5) in the next House of Representatives.

But a few races are still unresolved. Most prominently, both of Georgia’s Senate seats will be decided in a runoff election on Jan. 5; if Democrats win them both, they will take control of the Senate by dint of Vice President-elect Kamala Harris’s ability to break ties in the chamber. And in the House, two districts are simply too close to call. Republican Claudia Tenney leads in New York’s 22nd District by only 12 votes, but there are still 2,500 disputed absentee and provisional ballots that may or may not be counted (a court will consider their fate starting Monday). And the results in Iowa’s 2nd District have been certified as a six-vote lead for Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks, but Democrat Rita Hart’s campaign has hinted that it will dispute the result. Both races rank among the closest federal elections in U.S. history.

Unfortunately, we may not know the outcome in these races for a while. Historically, elections this close have dragged on for months amid legal challenges, and the Georgia runoffs are still more than a month away. So while we’ll continue to cover major developments in these races in standalone articles, this will be the last post on this live blog. This marks the end of seven consecutive weeks of live blogging here at FiveThirtyEight. Thanks for joining us!


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