FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

And just after I posted that, ABC News has issued another projection in one of our three (now two) unresolved races. Republican David Valadao has defeated Democratic Rep. TJ Cox in California’s 21st District, giving Republicans their 10th net seat gain in the House. This result was a mild surprise, too, as the Deluxe version of our forecast had given Cox a 58 in 100 chance of winning.


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