FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich Geoffrey Skelley

Where The Unresolved House Races Stand

So far, Democrats have clinched 222 seats in the next House, and Republicans have clinched 209 (including Louisiana’s 5th District, which is going to a Republican-vs.-Republican runoff on Dec. 5). That leaves four House races that are still unresolved. Here’s a quick update on where those contests stand:

House races we’re still waiting on

Share of the expected vote reported, by race and the leading party’s current margin

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Source: ABC News

  • California’s 21st District: Republican David Valadao now leads Democratic Rep. TJ Cox by 1,763 votes. Rob Pyers of California Target Book estimates that there are about 2,500 votes left to count in the district’s bluest corner (Kern County), but 1,012 ballots left in its reddest (Kings County). This is increasingly looking like a GOP pickup.

  • California’s 25th District: Republican Rep. Mike Garcia holds a razor-thin 0.1-point edge (400 votes) over Democrat Christy Smith. Pyers estimates there could be up to 3,000 votes left to count here, but it is Garcia, not Smith, who has been gaining ground as more votes are counted. Garcia has declared victory as a result, but independent decision desks are so far withholding judgment.

  • Iowa’s 2nd District: The race for this open Democratic-held seat — the closest House race in the country — has gone to a recount. Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democrat Rita Hart by 41 votes in the latest count, but unofficial reports from four counties that have yet to finish recounting suggest that Hart may actually lead by 2. (Iowa Starting Line has a helpful spreadsheet.) However, Miller-Meeks is disputing the recount procedures in two of these counties, plus there are a handful of counties where the recount is still a black box, so this is a long way from over. The state is supposed to certify results on Monday, but historically, races this close have dragged on for months amid legal challenges.

  • New York’s 22nd District: The initial trajectory of the count favored Republican Claudia Tenney, who led Democratic Rep. Anthony Brindisi by 28,422 votes after Election Day, but absentee ballots have almost completely erased that lead. However, because of New York’s decentralized and disorganized absentee-ballot-counting process, no one knows exactly what the current margin is: Tenney likely leads by somewhere between 100 and 300 votes. With the initial count more or less complete, attention has turned to a court hearing this week over whether thousands of disputed absentee and provisional ballots will count.

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