FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich Geoffrey Skelley

Where The Unresolved House Races Stand

A number of House races are still on our radar as we wait to see how they will play out. Here’s a quick update on where those contests stand:

House races we’re still waiting on

Share of the expected vote reported, by race and the leading party’s current margin

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Source: ABC News

  • Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District: In the closest race in the country, Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democrat Rita Hart by about 50 votes in an open seat held by retiring Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack. But given the current margin is just 0.01 percentage points (!), Hart requested a recount, which counties in the district have now begun to conduct. As Iowa’s election code gives counties 18 days to complete a recount after finishing their canvassing and certifying results — which they were supposed to do last week — it may still be a few days before we know the final outcome.
  • Two California races: California often sees a large number of votes counted in the days following the election, which sometimes leads to sizable shifts in vote margins. This is due in part to California’s generous mail ballot receipt deadline (Nov. 20), so more votes may arrive in the coming days that will influence the outcomes in two undecided races in the Golden State. In California’s 25th District, Republican Rep. Mike Garcia holds a razor-thin 0.1-point edge (422 votes) over Democrat Christy Smith. Garcia flipped this seat in a May 2020 special election, and Smith may be running out of runway to overtake Garcia as counties near the completion of their vote counts. The GOP also holds a narrow 1.1-point lead in California’s 21st Congressional District, but it’s unclear how that race will pan out as multiple counties in the 21st District have more ballots to process.
  • New York’s 2nd District: Republican Andrew Garbarino leads Democrat Jackie Gordon in this open, Republican-held seat 57 percent to 42 percent, or a margin of 41,731 votes. That margin looks so insurmountable that Gordon conceded the race on Wednesday.
  • New York’s 18th District: Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney leads Republican Chele Farley 51 percent to 48 percent, a margin of 10,041 votes. Maloney has said he’s confident he will extend his lead as absentees are counted, and we tend to agree.
  • New York’s 19th District: Democratic Rep. Antonio Delgado currently leads Republican Kyle Van De Water by a margin of 51 percent to 46 percent, or 14,264 votes. With only absentee ballots (which tend to skew Democratic) left to count, Delgado is favored to hold on here; Decision Desk HQ, in fact, has already called the race for him.
  • New York’s 22nd District: The initial trajectory of the count favored Republican Claudia Tenney, who led Democratic Rep. Anthony Brindisi by 28,422 votes after Election Day, but the margin has narrowed, in part due to absentee ballots. According to WBNG-TV reporter Josh Rosenblatt, who has been tracking the absentee-ballot dumps, Tenney’s lead is now only 3,470 votes, with somewhere between 9,000 and 14,000 ballots left to count.
  • Bonus! New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District: This race isn’t in our unresolved table because ABC News projected Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski as the winner, but things are still a bit uncertain, as Malinowski’s lead is just 1.2 points, or around 5,000 votes. However, while the trajectory of the count has been favorable for Republican Tom Kean Jr., it’s becoming harder to see him catching Malinowski. The New Jersey Globe has even projected the race for the Democratic incumbent. Still, we’re keeping an eye on it as New Jersey wraps up its count, just to be sure.

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