FiveThirtyEight
Geoffrey Skelley

Where The Unresolved House Races Stand

Nine House races are still on our radar as we wait to see how they will play out. Here’s a quick update on where those contests stand:

House races we’re still waiting on

Share of the expected vote reported, by race and the leading party’s current margin

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Source: ABC News

  • Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District: In the closest race in the country, Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democrat Rita Hart by fewer than 50 votes in an open seat held by retiring Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack. But given the current margin is just 0.02 percentage points (!), Hart requested a recount, which counties in the district have now begun to conduct. As Iowa’s election code gives counties 18 days to complete a recount after finishing their canvassing and certifying results — which they were supposed to do a week ago — it may still be a few days before we know the final score.
  • Two California races: California often sees a large number of votes counted in the days following the election, which sometimes leads to sizable shifts in vote margins. This is due in part to California’s generous mail ballot receipt deadline (Nov. 20), so more votes may arrive in the coming days that will determine the outcomes in two undecided races in the Golden State. In California’s 25th District, Republican Rep. Mike Garcia holds a razor-thin 0.1-point edge (371 votes) over Democrat Christy Smith. Garcia flipped this seat in a May 2020 special election, and Smith may be running out of runway to overtake Garcia as counties near the completion of their vote counts.. The GOP also holds a narrow 1.3-point lead in California’s 21st Congressional District, but it’s unclear how that race will pan out as multiple counties in the 21st District have more ballots to process.
  • Five New York races: There’s a fair amount to talk about in these contests, so see Nathaniel’s post below.
  • Bonus! New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District: This race isn’t in our unresolved table because ABC News projected Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski as the winner, but things appear to still be up in the air as Malinowski’s lead is down to 1.1 points, or around 4,600 votes. And the trajectory of the count has been an example of a “red shift” as Republican Tom Kean Jr. has been gaining as votes have been tallied, which prompted The New York Times to remove its projection for Malinowski. Still, Kean has an uphill climb, as he’ll have to win a sizable majority of the remaining votes, which may number 15,000 or more.

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