FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

An Update On The Five Unresolved House Races In New York

Here’s the latest on the five New York congressional races where ABC News has yet to project a winner. In general, the Democratic candidates are expected to gain ground in these contests since absentee ballots tend to be Democratic.

  • 2nd District: Republican Andrew Garbarino leads Democrat Jackie Gordon in this open, Republican-held seat 57 percent to 42 percent, or a margin of 41,788 votes. According to Newsday, there were only about 63,000 absentee ballots cast here, and about 11,000 have already been counted (all from Nassau County, the smaller of the district’s two counties). Garbarino has to like his chances of hanging on.
  • 3rd District: Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi has taken the lead over Republican George Santos 52 percent to 48 percent, a margin of 12,236 votes. Suozzi should only benefit as more absentees are counted.
  • 18th District: Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney leads Republican Chele Farley 51 percent to 48 percent, a margin of 10,041 votes. Maloney has said he’s confident he will extend his lead as absentees are counted, and we tend to agree.
  • 19th District: Democratic Rep. Antonio Delgado currently leads Republican Kyle Van De Water by a margin of 51 percent to 47 percent, or 14,264 votes. Again, the Democrat is favored to hold on here, even when all the absentee ballots are counted; Decision Desk HQ, in fact, has already called the race for Delgado.
  • 22nd District: Republican Claudia Tenney led Democratic Rep. Anthony Brindisi by 28,422 votes after Election Day, but Brindisi has surged back into contention on the strength of absentee ballots. According to WBNG-TV reporter Josh Rosenblatt, who has been tracking the absentee-ballot dumps, Tenney’s lead is now only 4,670 votes, with somewhere between 12,000 and 17,000 ballots left to count.

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