FiveThirtyEight
Geoffrey Skelley

Where The Unresolved House Races Stand

A dozen races are still on our radar as we wait to see how they will play out in the coming days. Here’s a quick look at where those contests stand:

House races we’re still waiting on

Share of the expected vote reported, by race and the leading party’s current margin

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Source: ABC News

  • Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District: In the closest race in the country, Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democrat Rita Hart by fewer than 50 votes in an open seat held by retiring Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack. But given the current margin is just 0.01 percentage points (!), Hart is going to request a recount across all 24 counties in the district. As Iowa’s election code gives counties 18 days to complete a recount after finishing their canvassing and certifying results — which they were supposed to do on Tuesday — it may be a couple of weeks before we know the final score here.
  • Utah’s 4th Congressional District: Republican Burgess Owens now holds a 0.4-point edge over Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams, or slightly fewer than 1,600 votes, according to ABC News. It’s unclear just how many votes still have to be tallied here — Utah is an all-mail voting state — but the math is getting better and better for Owens, as McAdams needs to win a solid majority of the last few votes to be counted to overcome the Republican’s edge.
  • Three California races: California often sees a large number of votes counted in the days following the election, which sometimes leads to sizable shifts in vote margins. This is due in part to California’s generous mail ballot receipt deadline (Nov. 20), so more votes may arrive in the coming days that will help decide the three remaining contests in the Golden State. In California’s 25th District, Republican Rep. Mike Garcia holds a razor-thin 0.07-point edge (219 votes) over Democrat Christy Smith. While Garcia flipped this seat in a May 2020 special election, it looks like his reelection fate will come down to a final tranche of votes from Los Angeles County. The GOP also holds narrow but somewhat larger leads in California’s 21st and 39th Congressional Districts, but it’s unclear how those races will pan out as multiple counties in the 21st District have more ballots to process, while Orange County — home to part of the 39th District — also has more to count.
  • Six New York races: There’s a lot to cover in these contests — see Nathaniel’s previous post.
  • Bonus — New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District: This race isn’t in our unresolved table because ABC News projected this race for Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski, but things appear to still be up in the air as more votes have been counted. As such, The New York Times removed its projection for the Democratic incumbent, and it may not be the last. Malinowski’s lead is down to 1.1 points, or around 4,600 votes, according to ABC News. And the trajectory of the count has been an example of a “red shift” as Republican Tom Kean Jr. has been gaining as votes have been tallied.

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