FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

With those two projections, the presidential map is now settled: Biden will win 306 electoral votes, and Trump will win 232. Right now, Biden is leading in Georgia 49.5 percent to 49.2 percent; the state has begun a hand recount of those results (expected to wrap up by Wednesday), but Biden’s win is not expected to change. Meanwhile, it’s a mild surprise that Trump has won North Carolina, after our model gave him just a 36 in 100 chance to prevail here. But he ended up winning 50.0 percent to 48.6 percent, per the current unofficial tally.


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