FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

An Update On The 3 Remaining States In The Presidential Race, As Of Nov. 12

Here’s the latest on the three states where we still don’t know the winner of the presidential race (although, to be clear, none of this would change the main takeaway — Biden has won the election, we’re just tracking the final electoral vote tally at this point):

  • Arizona: Biden currently leads by 11,390 votes, but an estimated 19,000 ballots (mostly provisional ballots) still need to be counted. Trump needs to win about 80 percent of those (or more) to pull into the lead — a very tall order — and other media outlets have already projected Biden the winner here. Arizona should wrap up counting in the next couple days, with tonight’s vote dump from Maricopa County (Phoenix) expected to be the last.
  • North Carolina: Trump currently leads here by 73,244 votes. There are potentially as many as 137,000 votes left to count, but that includes 92,300 absentee ballots that were mailed to voters but haven’t yet been received by election officials (many of them were probably never mailed back) as well as more than 20,000 provisional ballots. So there may simply not be enough votes to erase Biden’s deficit. Counties will release the results of late-arriving absentee ballots through Friday, and the provisional ballots will be tallied by the end of the week as well.
  • Georgia: With almost all of the vote counted, Biden is up here by 14,057 votes, or 0.3 percentage points. The state has announced that, as part of a routine audit of the results, it will take the unusual step of recounting the entire presidential race by hand before results are certified on Nov. 20. If at that point Biden is still leading by less than 1 percentage point, Trump’s campaign can request another recount. However, given Biden’s relatively large lead, it would be very difficult for either recount to reverse the result.
Presidential races we’re still waiting on

Share of the expected vote reported, by race and the leading party’s current margin

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Source: ABC News


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