FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

An Update On The 4 Remaining States In The Presidential Race, As Of Nov. 10

Here’s the latest on the four states where we still don’t know the winner of the presidential race (although, to be clear, none of this would change the main takeaway — Biden has won the election, we’re just tracking the final electoral vote tally at this point):
  • Arizona: Biden currently leads by 14,468 votes, but an estimated 58,000 ballots (including 33,000 provisional ballots) still need to be counted. Trump needs to win about 63 percent of those (or more) to pull into the lead, a goal that looks increasingly unattainable. Arizona is still releasing results at a regular pace, with the next big drop from Maricopa County due at 9 p.m. Eastern.
  • Alaska: Alaska has counted every Election Day vote and early in-person votes cast by Oct. 29, and Trump leads these ballots by 54,598 votes. However, there are still between 145,000 and 156,000 ballots left to count, meaning Biden’s path to a win here is steep but not impossible. Those remaining results will begin to be announced at 9 p.m. Eastern tonight.
  • North Carolina: Trump currently leads here by 74,870 votes. There are potentially as many as 144,000 votes left to count, but that includes 93,000 absentee ballots that were mailed to voters but haven’t yet been received by election officials (many of them were probably never mailed back) as well as 23,000 provisional ballots. So there may simply not be enough votes to erase Biden’s deficit. Counties will release the results of late-arriving absentee ballots through Friday, and the provisional ballots will be tallied by the end of the week as well.
  • Georgia: With almost all of the vote counted, Biden is up here by 12,651 votes, or 0.3 percentage points. That’s close enough that Trump’s campaign can request a recount, which would take place after the state’s Nov. 20 certification deadline and take about two weeks. However, it would be unprecedented in modern times for a recount to reverse such a wide margin.
Presidential races we’re still waiting on

Share of the expected vote reported, by race and the leading party’s current margin

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Source: ABC News


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