FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

Last night, Maricopa County, Arizona, released the results of more than 6,000 additional ballots, and they broke down pretty evenly: 50 percent for Trump, 48 percent for Biden. Considering that Trump is currently trailing in Arizona, he needs to do a lot better than that if he wants to win the state’s 11 electoral votes. While ABC News still has not projected a winner in Arizona, analysts generally agree that it has gone from “lean Biden” to “likely Biden” in recent days. Given that Biden now leads statewide by 14,746 votes, Trump would need to win 62 percent or more of the 62,000 uncounted ballots to win. And, considering that 37,000 of those ballots are provisional (and therefore some of them might be ruled invalid), the true number of remaining votes is probably significantly less.


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