Results took longer than usual this year — and still, not every race has a projection. I know that was suspenseful for a lot of people following along. But there’s something you should know about how I report projections. I’ll let you in on a little secret: I’m a bit of an emotional fox — at least as it concerns probability. That’s why I use FiveThirtyEight’s final forecast to contextualize the results — is this what we anticipated or were we surprised? And if we were surprised, based on our final forecast, I might react as such. For example:
- If our final forecast listed a candidate as “slightly favored,” meaning that the forecast gave them somewhere between a 55 and 70 percent chance of winning, but one of their opponents wins, I will be surprised (😮) when I share the projection.
- If our final forecast listed a candidate as “favored,” giving them between a 70 and 90 percent chance of winning, but one of their opponents is projected as winning, I will be shocked (😲).
- And finally, if our final forecast listed a candidate as either “clearly favored” or “very likely” to win, meaning they had over a 90 percent chance of winning, but they still are projected to lose, my little fox mind will be completely blown (🤯).
And there have been a handful of races that have surprised me so far. Take Trump’s victories in Florida and in Maine’s 2nd District. They surprised (😮) me, but the remaining presidential races have gone as I expected so far. Similarly, Collins’s victory in Maine’s Senate race also came as a surprise to me — as did Nancy Mace’s win in South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District and Yvette Herrell’s win in New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District. And while most of the wins I found surprising so far were Republican wins, Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux’s win in Georgia’s 7th Congressional District also surprised me because our final forecast had her Republican opponent slightly favored to win.
I was more than surprised by a few outcomes, though. I was shocked (😲) by some House races. For example, Carlos Gimenez’s projected victory in Florida’s 26th District and Maria Elvira Salazar’s win in Florida’s 27th District shocked me. These were two Republican challengers that unseated Democratic incumbents we had listed as “favored” in our final forecast. Also, Republican Ashley Hinson’s projected win in Iowa’s 1st District and Republican Tony Gonzales’s projected win in Texas’s 23rd District shocked me.
No race has yet blown my mind (🤯), though. It is important to note, however, that ABC News has not yet projected the result of the presidential races in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Alaska. And while we know both Senate races in Georgia will go to a runoff, the network still hasn’t projected a few other Senate and House races either. So I’ll be right here on our new live blog for these races, bringing you projections from ABC News as they trickle in. And if any of these results are surprising (😮), shocking (😲) or mind-blowing (🤯) — you know I won’t be able to contain my reaction as I share the projections with you!