FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

Tracking The 4 Remaining States In The Presidential Race

There are four states where we still don’t know who won (although, to be clear, none of this would change the topline takeaway — Biden has won the election, we’re just tracking the final electoral vote tally at this point):

  • First up, Arizona. Biden currently leads by 16,985 votes, but an estimated 77,000 ballots (including 41,000 provisional ballots) still need to be counted. Trump is an underdog in this race, but it’s not totally implausible that he could still pick up Arizona. He needs to win about 61 percent of those (or more) to pull into the lead, but he’s been falling short of that so far. Arizona is still releasing results at a regular pace, so we may get an answer here soon.
  • Next up, Alaska. Alaska has counted every Election Day vote and every early in-person vote cast by Oct. 29, and Trump leads these ballots by 51,382 votes. However, Alaska won’t start to count the remaining 134,664 absentee and late-cast early votes until Nov. 10. Biden’s path to a win here is steep, but it’s not impossible. However, we won’t likely know who won until Wednesday at the earliest.
  • It’s slow going in North Carolina, too. Trump currently leads here by 75,407 votes. However, the state has announced that about 130,900 mail-in ballots and 40,766 provisional ballots are potentially outstanding, although not all of those mail-in ballots will arrive on time, and not all of those provisionals will be found to be valid. Mail-in ballots have until Nov. 12 to arrive, and at that point more results will be released.
  • And finally, Georgia. With almost all of the vote counted, Biden is up here by 10,498 votes, or 0.2 percentage points. That falls within the state’s recount range and the secretary of state has already said that the race will go to a recount, but it would be unprecedented in modern times for a recount to reverse such a wide margin.
Presidential races we’re still waiting on

Share of the expected vote reported, by race and the leading party’s current margin

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Source: ABC News


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