FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

That’s A Wrap!

Today marks four weeks since Election Day, and we still don’t have complete election results. In fairness, there is a lot we do know: We know that (barring the stray faithless elector) Joe Biden will win 306 electoral votes and President Trump will win 232. We know that the next Senate will have at least 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats (counting the two independents who caucus with Democrats). And we know that Democrats will have at least 222 seats and Republicans will have at least 211 (including Louisiana’s 5th District, which is going to a Republican-vs.-Republican runoff on Dec. 5) in the next House of Representatives.

But a few races are still unresolved. Most prominently, both of Georgia’s Senate seats will be decided in a runoff election on Jan. 5; if Democrats win them both, they will take control of the Senate by dint of Vice President-elect Kamala Harris’s ability to break ties in the chamber. And in the House, two districts are simply too close to call. Republican Claudia Tenney leads in New York’s 22nd District by only 12 votes, but there are still 2,500 disputed absentee and provisional ballots that may or may not be counted (a court will consider their fate starting Monday). And the results in Iowa’s 2nd District have been certified as a six-vote lead for Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks, but Democrat Rita Hart’s campaign has hinted that it will dispute the result. Both races rank among the closest federal elections in U.S. history.

Unfortunately, we may not know the outcome in these races for a while. Historically, elections this close have dragged on for months amid legal challenges, and the Georgia runoffs are still more than a month away. So while we’ll continue to cover major developments in these races in standalone articles, this will be the last post on this live blog. This marks the end of seven consecutive weeks of live blogging here at FiveThirtyEight. Thanks for joining us!

Nathaniel Rakich

And just after I posted that, ABC News has issued another projection in one of our three (now two) unresolved races. Republican David Valadao has defeated Democratic Rep. TJ Cox in California’s 21st District, giving Republicans their 10th net seat gain in the House. This result was a mild surprise, too, as the Deluxe version of our forecast had given Cox a 58 in 100 chance of winning.

Fivey Fox

ABC News projects a Republican win in CA-21 (😮).

Nathaniel Rakich

Last night, Democrat Christy Smith conceded to Republican Rep. Mike Garcia in California’s 25th District, prompting our colleagues at ABC News to project the seat for Republicans. By our reckoning, the House is now up to 222 Democrats, 210 Republicans (counting whoever wins an all-Republican runoff in Louisiana) and three undecided races.

Fivey Fox

ABC News projects a Republican win in CA-25.

Geoffrey Skelley Nathaniel Rakich

Where The Unresolved House Races Stand

So far, Democrats have clinched 222 seats in the next House, and Republicans have clinched 209 (including Louisiana’s 5th District, which is going to a Republican-versus-Republican runoff on Dec. 5). That leaves four House races still unresolved. Here’s an update on where those contests stand:

  • California’s 21st District: Republican David Valadao now leads Democratic Rep. TJ Cox by 1,729 votes. The Associated Press called the race for the GOP here, but our colleagues at ABC News haven’t yet made a projection.
  • California’s 25th District: Republican Rep. Mike Garcia holds a razor-thin 0.1-point edge (405 votes) over Democrat Christy Smith. Garcia has declared victory, but independent decision desks are so far withholding judgment. We could get a final answer here tonight, however, as both counties in the district plan to finalize their vote totals today.
  • Iowa’s 2nd District: With the recount complete in this open Democratic-held seat, Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democrat Rita Hart by only 6 votes, making this the closest House race in the country. On Monday, the state officially certified the results, so the question is now whether Hart will dispute the result in court (or, perhaps, the House of Representatives). There is plenty of historical precedent for races this close to drag on for months amid legal challenges — or even get overturned.
  • New York’s 22nd District: The initial trajectory of the count favored Republican Claudia Tenney, who led Democratic Rep. Anthony Brindisi by 28,422 votes after Election Day, but absentee ballots have almost completely erased that lead. After counties double-checked their results on Monday, Tenney’s lead stood at just 12 votes. This race is a long way from over, though. Next Monday, a state court will convene to consider whether to count around 2,500 disputed absentee and provisional ballots that could swing the race either way.
Nathaniel Rakich

Iowa has officially certified the results of the 2nd Congressional District race, where Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks has just a six-vote lead. All eyes are now on Democrat Rita Hart, who could choose to concede or contest the election even further. In a statement on Monday afternoon, her campaign manager implied that they were not done fighting: “Over the next few days, we will outline our next steps in this process to ensure that all Iowans’ voices are heard.”

Nathaniel Rakich

Happy Monday! Over the holiday weekend, we got some notable updates in three of the four races we’re still tracking. (There was no significant news in California’s 25th District).

  • The Associated Press called California’s 21st District for Republican David Valadao. However, our colleagues at ABC News have yet to make a projection.
  • Every county in Iowa’s 2nd District completed its recount, and the result was that Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks has just a 6-vote lead (!). That number is expected to become official today, when the state certifies its results, but a legal battle could follow.
  • Not to be outdone, the counties in New York’s 22nd District submitted revised vote totals to a judge, and Republican Claudia Tenney now leads that race by just 12 or 13 votes.
Nathaniel Rakich

Where The Unresolved House Races Stand

As satisfying as a steady diet of election results is, it doesn’t stick to the ribs quite like real food. So we’re taking the rest of the week off for Thanksgiving; the next update to this blog will be on Monday. We’ll leave you with a roundup of where the four unresolved House races stand as of Wednesday afternoon:

  • California’s 21st District: Republican David Valadao now leads Democratic Rep. TJ Cox by 1,820 votes. Rob Pyers of California Target Book estimates that there are about 2,500 votes left to count in the district’s bluest corner (Kern County), but about 500 ballots left in its reddest (Kings County). This is increasingly looking like a GOP pickup.
  • California’s 25th District: Republican Rep. Mike Garcia holds a razor-thin 0.1-point edge (405 votes) over Democrat Christy Smith. Pyers estimates there are between 2,200 and 3,300 votes left to count here, but it is Garcia, not Smith, who has been gaining ground as more votes are counted. Garcia has declared victory as a result, but independent decision desks are so far withholding judgment.
  • Iowa’s 2nd District: The race for this open Democratic-held seat — the closest House race in the country — has gone to a recount. The latest results, with 21 out of 24 counties having finished their recount, show Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks 35 votes ahead of Democrat Rita Hart. However, unofficial reports from the remaining three counties say that Hart could gain 36 votes on net from them, which would put the Democrat in the lead by the narrowest possible margin: a single vote. Miller-Meeks, though, is disputing the recount procedures in two of these counties, and there is a discrepancy of 131 votes in Scott County, so this is a long way from over. The state is supposed to certify results on Monday, but historically, races this close have dragged on for months amid legal challenges.
  • New York’s 22nd District: The initial trajectory of the count favored Republican Claudia Tenney, who led Democratic Rep. Anthony Brindisi by 28,422 votes after Election Day, but absentee ballots have almost completely erased that lead. However, because of New York’s decentralized and disorganized absentee-ballot-counting process, no one knows exactly what the current margin is: Tenney likely leads by somewhere between 100 and 300 votes. With the initial count more or less complete, attention has turned to a court hearing this week over whether thousands of disputed absentee and provisional ballots will count. However, the proceedings have so far only exposed counties’ poor record-keeping procedures and added to the confusion over which votes have been counted and which have not. On Tuesday, a judge ordered counties not to certify results in the race until those questions have been answered, so we could be waiting a while for a resolution here too.
Nathaniel Rakich

We haven’t been actively tracking it, but one other late-breaking election result of note: This week, Democrats basically sewed up a supermajority in the New York state Senate. In addition to giving them the ability to override the vetoes of moderate Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo, this also gives Democrats full control over passing new congressional and state legislative maps in New York, which is expected to have 26 House seats next decade. That means that Democrats will control the redrawing of 73 House seats in total, or 17 percent of the House. Republicans will control the redrawing of 188 seats (43 percent), while 167 seats (38 percent) will be drawn by independent commissions or both parties working together.

Nathaniel Rakich Geoffrey Skelley

Where The Unresolved House Races Stand

So far, Democrats have clinched 222 seats in the next House, and Republicans have clinched 209 (including Louisiana’s 5th District, which is going to a Republican-vs.-Republican runoff on Dec. 5). That leaves four House races that are still unresolved. Here’s a quick update on where those contests stand:

House races we’re still waiting on

Share of the expected vote reported, by race and the leading party’s current margin

View more!

Source: ABC News

  • California’s 21st District: Republican David Valadao now leads Democratic Rep. TJ Cox by 1,763 votes. Rob Pyers of California Target Book estimates that there are about 2,500 votes left to count in the district’s bluest corner (Kern County), but 1,012 ballots left in its reddest (Kings County). This is increasingly looking like a GOP pickup.

  • California’s 25th District: Republican Rep. Mike Garcia holds a razor-thin 0.1-point edge (400 votes) over Democrat Christy Smith. Pyers estimates there could be up to 3,000 votes left to count here, but it is Garcia, not Smith, who has been gaining ground as more votes are counted. Garcia has declared victory as a result, but independent decision desks are so far withholding judgment.

  • Iowa’s 2nd District: The race for this open Democratic-held seat — the closest House race in the country — has gone to a recount. Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democrat Rita Hart by 41 votes in the latest count, but unofficial reports from four counties that have yet to finish recounting suggest that Hart may actually lead by 2. (Iowa Starting Line has a helpful spreadsheet.) However, Miller-Meeks is disputing the recount procedures in two of these counties, plus there are a handful of counties where the recount is still a black box, so this is a long way from over. The state is supposed to certify results on Monday, but historically, races this close have dragged on for months amid legal challenges.

  • New York’s 22nd District: The initial trajectory of the count favored Republican Claudia Tenney, who led Democratic Rep. Anthony Brindisi by 28,422 votes after Election Day, but absentee ballots have almost completely erased that lead. However, because of New York’s decentralized and disorganized absentee-ballot-counting process, no one knows exactly what the current margin is: Tenney likely leads by somewhere between 100 and 300 votes. With the initial count more or less complete, attention has turned to a court hearing this week over whether thousands of disputed absentee and provisional ballots will count.
Nathaniel Rakich

Any election as close as Iowa’s 2nd District has the potential to wind up in a prolonged legal dispute, which could mean the winner doesn’t get seated for months. In New Hampshire’s 1974 U.S. Senate election, the final recount yielded a margin of just 2 votes, and the loser challenged the result in the Senate. The Senate eventually declared the seat vacant and a new election was held, so the winner wasn’t seated until September. And in the razor-close 1984 election for Indiana’s 8th District, the Republican secretary of state declared the Republican the winner, but the Democratic House refused to seat him and in May declared the Democrat the winner by just 4 votes.

Nathaniel Rakich

We didn’t think it was possible, but somehow the race in Iowa’s 2nd District has gotten even closer. According to Democrat Rita Hart’s campaign, she netted 9 votes from the recount in Jasper County — this after she netted 30 votes in Scott County over the weekend. If true, that would mean Hart has now pulled ahead of Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks by just 3 votes.

Geoffrey Skelley Nathaniel Rakich

Where The Unresolved House Races Stand

So far, Democrats have clinched 222 seats in the next House, and Republicans have clinched 209 (including Louisiana’s 5th District, which is going to a Republican-vs.-Republican runoff on Dec. 5). That leaves four House races that are still unresolved. Here’s a quick update on where those contests stand:
House races we’re still waiting on

Share of the expected vote reported, by race and the leading party’s current margin

View more!

Source: ABC News

  • Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District: In the closest race in the country, Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democrat Rita Hart by fewer than 40 votes in an open seat held by retiring Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack. The ongoing recount has generated controversy, however, as both campaigns have expressed procedural concerns. Last week, Hart’s campaign sent a letter to the secretary of state seeking clarification about how counties should handle checking voter intent during the recount. Now Miller-Meeks’s campaign is questioning the recount procedures in some counties. At issue are differing interpretations of the secretary of state’s guidance for checking voter intent on ballots that a machine might fail to read: Some counties have taken it to mean they can only check voter intent if they conduct a full hand recount, as opposed to using machines to count most ballots and only manually reviewing ballots where there’s some question about what the voter wanted to do. If a full hand recount is required to apply the voter intent standard, it would be nigh impossible to complete for all absentee ballots, which are treated as a single precinct, by the Nov. 27-28 deadline. But without examining voter intent, especially for over- and undervoted ballots, valid votes could be missed because machines couldn’t read them. Bipartisan recount boards in the district’s three most populous counties, including Scott, have used a hybrid approach where over- and undervotes are checked by hand after the machine count. But Miller-Meeks’s campaign alleges that counties can only conduct an all-machine or an all-manual recount, not use this hybrid method. Considering the margin, how this plays out is a very big deal: Hart appears to have picked up 30 net votes in Scott County that aren’t yet reflected in the totals, with recount updates still to come from other counties in the district.
  • California’s 21st District: Republican David Valadao now leads Democratic Rep. TJ Cox by 1,719 votes. Rob Pyers of California Target Book estimates that there are about 2,500 votes left to count in the district’s bluest corner (Kern County), but 1,295 ballots left in its reddest (Kings County). This is increasingly looking like a GOP pickup.
  • California’s 25th District: Republican Rep. Mike Garcia holds a razor-thin 0.1-point edge (400 votes) over Democrat Christy Smith. Pyers estimates there could be up to 2,900 votes left to count here, but it is Garcia, not Smith, who has been gaining ground as more votes are counted. Garcia has declared victory as a result, but independent decision desks are so far withholding judgment.
  • New York’s 22nd District: The initial trajectory of the count favored Republican Claudia Tenney, who led Democratic Rep. Anthony Brindisi by 28,422 votes after Election Day, but absentee ballots have almost completely erased that lead. However, because of New York’s decentralized and disorganized absentee-ballot-counting process, no one knows exactly what the current margin is: Tenney likely leads by somewhere between 100 and 300 votes. With the initial count more or less complete, attention has turned to a court hearing this week over whether thousands of disputed absentee and provisional ballots will count.
Nathaniel Rakich

The race between Democratic Rep. Anthony Brindisi and Republican Claudia Tenney in New York’s 22nd District had its day in court today … and it did not reflect well on election administrators in New York. The hearing was intended to decide whether certain disputed absentee and provisional ballots would count in the closely contested race, but it was quickly discovered that Oneida County election commissioners did not even know whether some of the disputed ballots are included in the current count: Some of the color-coded sticky notes they had used to label the ballots had fallen off. (Yes, really.) The hearing will continue tomorrow, when the judge will consider whether 2,000 rejected ballots should be counted after all. Tenney currently leads the race by somewhere between 100 and 300 votes (in another indictment of New York’s vote-counting, no one knows the exact margin).

Geoffrey Skelley Nathaniel Rakich

Where The Unresolved House Races Stand

So far, Democrats have clinched 222 seats in the next House, and Republicans have clinched 209 (including Louisiana’s 5th Congressional District, which is going to a Republican-vs.-Republican runoff on Dec. 5). That leaves four House races still unresolved. Here’s a quick update on where those contests stand:

House races we’re still waiting on

Share of the expected vote reported, by race and the leading party’s current margin

View more!

Source: ABC News

  • Iowa’s 2nd District: In the closest race in the country, Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democrat Rita Hart by about 50 votes in an open seat held by retiring Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack. But given the current margin is just 0.01 percentage points (!), Hart requested a recount, which counties in the district have now begun to conduct. On Wednesday, Hart’s campaign sent a letter to the secretary of state’s office that asked for clarification regarding recount procedures for checking voter intent on ballots that a tabulation machine might fail to read. Counties appear to have differing interpretations of the secretary’s guidance: Some have taken it to mean they can only check voter intent if a full hand recount, as opposed to a machine recount, is conducted. If a full hand recount is required to apply the voter intent standard, it would be difficult to complete for all absentee ballots, which are treated as a single precinct, by the Nov. 27-28 deadline. But without examining voter intent, especially with over- and undervotes, valid votes could be missed that the machine couldn’t read. Together, the two bluest counties in the district — Johnson (Iowa City) and Scott (Davenport) — apparently have more than 7,000 undervotes to potentially examine.
  • Two California races: California often sees a large number of votes counted in the days following the election, which sometimes leads to sizable shifts in vote margins. This is due in part to California’s generous mail ballot receipt deadline (tomorrow, Nov. 20), so a few more votes may arrive that could influence the outcomes in two undecided races in the Golden State. In California’s 25th District, Republican Rep. Mike Garcia holds a razor-thin 0.1-point edge (422 votes) over Democrat Christy Smith. Garcia flipped this seat in a May 2020 special election, and Smith may be running out of runway to overtake Garcia as counties near the completion of their vote counts. The GOP also holds a narrow 1.1-point lead in California’s 21st Congressional District, but it’s unclear how that race will pan out as multiple counties in the 21st District still have more ballots to process.
  • New York’s 22nd District: The initial trajectory of the count favored Republican Claudia Tenney, who led Democratic Rep. Anthony Brindisi by 28,422 votes after Election Day, but absentee ballots have almost completely erased that lead. Unfortunately, there is no centralized official source for results, but independent media tallies currently put Tenney’s lead somewhere between 106 and 339 votes. There may (or may not) be a few hundred ballots yet to count.
Nathaniel Rakich

To illustrate how the lack of a centralized source for vote totals can create uncertainty about the results, here are two sources other than Wasserman who have calculated slightly different leads for Tenney. The exact margin of her lead is important, given that the 22nd District could come down to just a handful of votes!

Nathaniel Rakich

The big problem in New York is that there’s no centralized source for vote totals (the state is extremely casual about reporting absentee ballots, with some counties — as you can see — reporting them weeks after Election Day), which means we have to piece together the picture from individual county reports like this one. And inevitably, there are discrepancies, such as between Rosenblatt’s reporting that there is still a significant number of uncounted ballots and Wasserman’s suggestion that there isn’t.

Nathaniel Rakich

Dave Wasserman of The Cook Political Report passes along the results of the ballots we’ve been waiting for out of Chenango County, New York. The 22nd District race between Brindisi and Tenney is now virtually tied. WBNG-TV’s Josh Rosenblatt had previously reported that there were a few hundred ballots remaining in some of the district’s other counties, but we don’t have specifics, so it’s really hard to know how the margin might change from here.

Nathaniel Rakich

And there are the ABC News projections in New York’s 18th and 19th districts, as expected. We’re now down to just four House races that remain up in the air, plus the Louisiana 5th District runoff that will occur on Dec. 5. (Both candidates there are Republicans, so we know that seat will remain in GOP hands.)

Fivey Fox

ABC News projects Democratic wins in NY-18 and NY-19.

Nathaniel Rakich

Slight amendment to the situation in New York’s 22nd District: Tenney’s lead is apparently just 1,945 votes, not 2,183 as we previously thought. That makes the number of votes Brindisi needs to pick up today that much smaller.

Nathaniel Rakich

Along with New York’s 19th Congressional District, the Associated Press has now also called New York’s 18th District for Democrats. This makes sense given that, like its neighbor to the north, the 18th District has had the Democrat in the lead even before all the absentee votes were counted. ABC News has not yet projected either race, however.

Nathaniel Rakich

Today’s a big day in New York’s 22nd Congressional District, as the results of about 4,800 absentee ballots in Chenango County are set to be released. According to WBNG-TV reporter Josh Rosenblatt’s latest accounting, Tenney leads Brindisi by just 2,183 votes.

Geoffrey Skelley

It looks like we can just about close the book on New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District. As the Garden State’s vote count continued over the past couple of weeks, Republican Tom Kean Jr. had been gaining on Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski, which cast some lingering uncertainty over the race despite the fact that ABC News had projected Malinowski as the winner. However, Kean now trails by 1.2 percentage points and appears to have run out of rope in terms of what’s left to count. Accordingly, both The New York Times and Decision Desk HQ projected the race for Malinowski yesterday. (The Times had actually “unprojected” the contest earlier because it seemed Kean might catch Malinowski.)

Nathaniel Rakich

Last night, the Associated Press called New York’s 19th Congressional District for Democratic incumbent Antonio Delgado. We’re still waiting on a projection from ABC News, but given that Delgado leads 52 percent to 46 percent and absentee ballots are only beginning to get counted, it should just be a matter of time.

Nathaniel Rakich

Fresh off Gordon’s concession, ABC News has projected New York’s 2nd District for Garbarino, the Republican. This is a mild surprise considering that our House forecast gave Gordon a 57 in 100 chance of victory before the election. However, no polls were released here, forcing our forecast to go entirely off fundamentals, which turned out to be misleading.

Fivey Fox

ABC News projects a Republican win in NY-2 (😮).

Nathaniel Rakich Geoffrey Skelley

Where The Unresolved House Races Stand

A number of House races are still on our radar as we wait to see how they will play out. Here’s a quick update on where those contests stand:

House races we’re still waiting on

Share of the expected vote reported, by race and the leading party’s current margin

View more!

Source: ABC News

  • Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District: In the closest race in the country, Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democrat Rita Hart by about 50 votes in an open seat held by retiring Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack. But given the current margin is just 0.01 percentage points (!), Hart requested a recount, which counties in the district have now begun to conduct. As Iowa’s election code gives counties 18 days to complete a recount after finishing their canvassing and certifying results — which they were supposed to do last week — it may still be a few days before we know the final outcome.
  • Two California races: California often sees a large number of votes counted in the days following the election, which sometimes leads to sizable shifts in vote margins. This is due in part to California’s generous mail ballot receipt deadline (Nov. 20), so more votes may arrive in the coming days that will influence the outcomes in two undecided races in the Golden State. In California’s 25th District, Republican Rep. Mike Garcia holds a razor-thin 0.1-point edge (422 votes) over Democrat Christy Smith. Garcia flipped this seat in a May 2020 special election, and Smith may be running out of runway to overtake Garcia as counties near the completion of their vote counts. The GOP also holds a narrow 1.1-point lead in California’s 21st Congressional District, but it’s unclear how that race will pan out as multiple counties in the 21st District have more ballots to process.
  • New York’s 2nd District: Republican Andrew Garbarino leads Democrat Jackie Gordon in this open, Republican-held seat 57 percent to 42 percent, or a margin of 41,731 votes. That margin looks so insurmountable that Gordon conceded the race on Wednesday.
  • New York’s 18th District: Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney leads Republican Chele Farley 51 percent to 48 percent, a margin of 10,041 votes. Maloney has said he’s confident he will extend his lead as absentees are counted, and we tend to agree.
  • New York’s 19th District: Democratic Rep. Antonio Delgado currently leads Republican Kyle Van De Water by a margin of 51 percent to 46 percent, or 14,264 votes. With only absentee ballots (which tend to skew Democratic) left to count, Delgado is favored to hold on here; Decision Desk HQ, in fact, has already called the race for him.
  • New York’s 22nd District: The initial trajectory of the count favored Republican Claudia Tenney, who led Democratic Rep. Anthony Brindisi by 28,422 votes after Election Day, but the margin has narrowed, in part due to absentee ballots. According to WBNG-TV reporter Josh Rosenblatt, who has been tracking the absentee-ballot dumps, Tenney’s lead is now only 3,470 votes, with somewhere between 9,000 and 14,000 ballots left to count.
  • Bonus! New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District: This race isn’t in our unresolved table because ABC News projected Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski as the winner, but things are still a bit uncertain, as Malinowski’s lead is just 1.2 points, or around 5,000 votes. However, while the trajectory of the count has been favorable for Republican Tom Kean Jr., it’s becoming harder to see him catching Malinowski. The New Jersey Globe has even projected the race for the Democratic incumbent. Still, we’re keeping an eye on it as New Jersey wraps up its count, just to be sure.
Nathaniel Rakich

In New York’s 2nd District, an open Republican-held seat, Democrat Jackie Gordon has conceded to Republican Andrew Garbarino. Garbarino currently leads 57 percent to 42 percent.

Nathaniel Rakich

Our colleagues at ABC News have joined the AP in projecting that Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi has won reelection. We’re now down to just seven unresolved House races, not counting Louisiana’s 5th District (which is going to a December runoff) and New Jersey’s 7th District (which ABC News has projected but some other outlets have not).

Fivey Fox

ABC News projects a Democratic win in NY-3.

Nathaniel Rakich

The Trump campaign has requested a partial recount in Wisconsin — specifically of Dane and Milwaukee counties, the state’s two Democratic strongholds and the locations of Madison and Milwaukee, respectively. Presumably, the campaign is hoping to raise a stink about the integrity of the votes there — even though there is no evidence of anything untoward. As a reminder, recounts rarely overturn election results, particularly when the margin is as wide as it currently is in Wisconsin (Biden leads by 20,565 votes). This recount is best seen as yet another attempt by Republicans to discredit the legitimacy of Biden’s win — while not having a serious chance of reversing the outcome.

Nathaniel Rakich

Our colleagues at ABC News aren’t quite ready to make a projection here, but the Associated Press has called New York’s 3rd Congressional District for Democratic incumbent Tom Suozzi. Suozzi trailed by a small margin on election night, but he’s gained a ton of ground as absentee ballots were counted, and he now leads 53 percent to 47 percent.

Geoffrey Skelley

Where The Unresolved House Races Stand

Nine House races are still on our radar as we wait to see how they will play out. Here’s a quick update on where those contests stand:

House races we’re still waiting on

Share of the expected vote reported, by race and the leading party’s current margin

View more!

Source: ABC News

  • Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District: In the closest race in the country, Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democrat Rita Hart by fewer than 50 votes in an open seat held by retiring Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack. But given the current margin is just 0.02 percentage points (!), Hart requested a recount, which counties in the district have now begun to conduct. As Iowa’s election code gives counties 18 days to complete a recount after finishing their canvassing and certifying results — which they were supposed to do a week ago — it may still be a few days before we know the final score.
  • Two California races: California often sees a large number of votes counted in the days following the election, which sometimes leads to sizable shifts in vote margins. This is due in part to California’s generous mail ballot receipt deadline (Nov. 20), so more votes may arrive in the coming days that will determine the outcomes in two undecided races in the Golden State. In California’s 25th District, Republican Rep. Mike Garcia holds a razor-thin 0.1-point edge (371 votes) over Democrat Christy Smith. Garcia flipped this seat in a May 2020 special election, and Smith may be running out of runway to overtake Garcia as counties near the completion of their vote counts.. The GOP also holds a narrow 1.3-point lead in California’s 21st Congressional District, but it’s unclear how that race will pan out as multiple counties in the 21st District have more ballots to process.
  • Five New York races: There’s a fair amount to talk about in these contests, so see Nathaniel’s post below.
  • Bonus! New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District: This race isn’t in our unresolved table because ABC News projected Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski as the winner, but things appear to still be up in the air as Malinowski’s lead is down to 1.1 points, or around 4,600 votes. And the trajectory of the count has been an example of a “red shift” as Republican Tom Kean Jr. has been gaining as votes have been tallied, which prompted The New York Times to remove its projection for Malinowski. Still, Kean has an uphill climb, as he’ll have to win a sizable majority of the remaining votes, which may number 15,000 or more.
Nathaniel Rakich

An Update On The Five Unresolved House Races In New York

Here’s the latest on the five New York congressional races where ABC News has yet to project a winner. In general, the Democratic candidates are expected to gain ground in these contests since absentee ballots tend to be Democratic.

  • 2nd District: Republican Andrew Garbarino leads Democrat Jackie Gordon in this open, Republican-held seat 57 percent to 42 percent, or a margin of 41,788 votes. According to Newsday, there were only about 63,000 absentee ballots cast here, and about 11,000 have already been counted (all from Nassau County, the smaller of the district’s two counties). Garbarino has to like his chances of hanging on.
  • 3rd District: Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi has taken the lead over Republican George Santos 52 percent to 48 percent, a margin of 12,236 votes. Suozzi should only benefit as more absentees are counted.
  • 18th District: Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney leads Republican Chele Farley 51 percent to 48 percent, a margin of 10,041 votes. Maloney has said he’s confident he will extend his lead as absentees are counted, and we tend to agree.
  • 19th District: Democratic Rep. Antonio Delgado currently leads Republican Kyle Van De Water by a margin of 51 percent to 47 percent, or 14,264 votes. Again, the Democrat is favored to hold on here, even when all the absentee ballots are counted; Decision Desk HQ, in fact, has already called the race for Delgado.
  • 22nd District: Republican Claudia Tenney led Democratic Rep. Anthony Brindisi by 28,422 votes after Election Day, but Brindisi has surged back into contention on the strength of absentee ballots. According to WBNG-TV reporter Josh Rosenblatt, who has been tracking the absentee-ballot dumps, Tenney’s lead is now only 4,670 votes, with somewhere between 12,000 and 17,000 ballots left to count.
Nathaniel Rakich

A number of you have emailed me asking for an update on Pennsylvania, but things there are pretty boring: Biden’s lead is now up to 74,047 votes, or 1.1 percentage points. In Pennsylvania, a race needs to be within 0.5 percentage point to trigger an automatic recount.

Nathaniel Rakich

Another update on the “recount” (really an audit) of the results in Georgia. Election officials have found so few discrepancies with the original count that the original count, not the recount, will be certified as the official results. (Machine counts of ballots are generally more reliable than hand counts.) This, of course, makes it even more certain that Biden’s win in the state will be upheld.

Nathaniel Rakich

After the Democratic candidates conceded, ABC News has projected the three House races below for Republicans. Utah’s 4th District and California’s 39th District are both upsets, according to the Deluxe version of our House forecast: Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams of Utah had a 56 in 100 chance of winning, and Democratic Rep. Gil Cisneros of California had a 74 in 100 chance. Those two seats are also the eighth and ninth seats Republicans have gained, on net, in the House. There are now only nine House seats that remain unresolved.

Fivey Fox

ABC News projects a Republican win in CA-39 (😲).

Fivey Fox

ABC News projects a Republican win in NY-24.

Fivey Fox

ABC News projects a Republican win in UT-4 (😮).

Nathaniel Rakich

Six New York House Races Are Still Unresolved

Here’s the latest on the six New York congressional races where ABC News has yet to project a winner. In general, the Democratic candidates are expected to gain ground in these contests, since absentee ballots skew Democratic.

  • 2nd District: Republican Andrew Garbarino leads Democrat Jackie Gordon in this open, Republican-held seat 57 percent to 42 percent, or a margin of 43,077 votes. According to Newsday, there were only about 63,000 absentee ballots cast here, and while it’s unclear how many of those have been counted so far, Garbarino is a heavy favorite regardless.
  • 3rd District: Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi has taken the lead over Republican George Santos 51 percent to 49 percent, a margin of 6,381 votes. Suozzi should only benefit as more absentees are counted.
  • 18th District: Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney leads Republican Chele Farley 51 percent to 48 percent, a margin of 10,041 votes. Maloney has said he’s confident he will extend his lead as absentees are counted, and we tend to agree.
  • 19th District: Democratic Rep. Antonio Delgado currently leads Republican Kyle Van De Water by a margin of 51 percent to 47 percent, or 14,264 votes. Again, the Democrat is favored to hold on here, even when all the absentee ballots are counted; Decision Desk HQ, in fact, has already called the race for Delgado.
  • 22nd District: Republican Claudia Tenney led Democratic Rep. Anthony Brindisi by 28,422 votes after Election Day, but Brindisi has surged back into contention on the strength of absentee ballots. According to WBNG-TV reporter Josh Rosenblatt, who has been tracking the absentee-ballot dumps, Tenney’s lead is now only 8,020 votes, with somewhere between 18,000 and 23,000 ballots left to count.
  • 24th District: Although this race remains unprojected, Republican Rep. John Katko has secured a victory over Democrat Dana Balter. On Thursday night, Katko’s lead was 44,729 votes, and there were only 44,400 absentee ballots left to count. And on Friday, Balter conceded the race.
Geoffrey Skelley

Where The Unresolved House Races Stand

Around a dozen races are still on our radar as we wait to see how they will play out. Here’s a quick update on where those contests stand:
House races we’re still waiting on

Share of the expected vote reported, by race and the leading party’s current margin

View more!

Source: ABC News

  • Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District: In the closest race in the country, Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democrat Rita Hart by fewer than 50 votes in an open seat held by retiring Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack. But given the current margin is just 0.01 percentage points (!), counties in the district are expected to begin a recount this week to double-check their tallies. As Iowa’s election code gives counties 18 days to complete a recount after finishing their canvassing and certifying results — which they were supposed to do last Tuesday — it may still be a few days before we know the final score.
  • Two California races: California often sees a large number of votes counted in the days following the election, which sometimes leads to sizable shifts in vote margins. This is due in part to California’s generous mail ballot receipt deadline (Nov. 20), so more votes may arrive in the coming days that will determine the outcomes in two undecided races in the Golden State. In California’s 25th District, Republican Rep. Mike Garcia holds a razor-thin 0.03-point edge (104 votes) over Democrat Christy Smith. While Garcia flipped this seat in a May 2020 special election, it remains to be seen if his lead will hold up when updated figures are released on Tuesday. The GOP also holds a narrow 1.3-point lead in California’s 21st Congressional District, but it’s unclear how that race will pan out as multiple counties in the 21st District have more ballots to process.
  • Democratic concessions: While ABC news has not yet projected the outcome in Utah’s 4th Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams has conceded to Republican Burgess Owens, who leads by 0.5 points. Similarly, Democratic Rep. Gil Cisneros has also conceded defeat to Republican Young Kim in California’s 39th Congressional District, although we don’t have a projection there either.
  • Six New York races: There’s a fair amount to talk about in these contests, so Nathaniel will run through those separately.
  • Bonus! New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District: This race isn’t in our unresolved table because ABC News projected Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski as the winner, but things appear to still be up in the air as Malinowski’s lead is down to 1.1 points, or around 4,600 votes. And the trajectory of the count has been an example of a “red shift” as Republican Tom Kean Jr. has been gaining as votes have been tallied, which prompted The New York Times to remove its projection for Malinowski. Still, Kean has an uphill climb, as he’ll have to win a sizable majority of the remaining votes, which may number 15,000 or more.
Nathaniel Rakich

As part of the state’s hand recount, Georgia’s Floyd County has apparently found more than 2,600 ballots that weren’t counted the first time around. Since Floyd County is pretty red turf, that’s expected to benefit Trump — perhaps netting him 800 votes or so, according to the chair of the county GOP. However, Biden’s lead in Georgia is more than 14,000 votes, so that won’t be nearly enough for Trump to close the gap.

Geoffrey Skelley

In Utah’s 4th Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams just conceded to Republican challenger Burgess Owens. Although ABC News has not yet projected a winner there, this signals another Republican flip in a competitive House seat.

Nathaniel Rakich

Biden is the projected winner in Georgia, but since I know many of you are curious how the current hand recount might change things: According to The New York Times, the recount is around two-thirds complete and has so far not significantly changed the results.

Geoffrey Skelley

Although ABC News has yet to project a winner in California’s 39th Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Gil Cisneros has conceded to Republican challenger Young Kim, who leads Cisneros by 1.2 percentage points. The Associated Press has projected Kim as the winner, too. A GOP victory in the 39th District would mark 2020’s second Republican win over a Democratic incumbent in the Los Angeles metropolitan area, joining California’s 48th District. Both of these suburban districts voted for Clinton in 2016, so unlike some Republican takeovers this cycle, these seats weren’t low-hanging fruit for the GOP.

Geoffrey Skelley

Where The Unresolved House Races Stand

A dozen races are still on our radar as we wait to see how they will play out in the coming days. Here’s a quick look at where those contests stand:

House races we’re still waiting on

Share of the expected vote reported, by race and the leading party’s current margin

View more!

Source: ABC News

  • Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District: In the closest race in the country, Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democrat Rita Hart by fewer than 50 votes in an open seat held by retiring Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack. But given the current margin is just 0.01 percentage points (!), Hart is going to request a recount across all 24 counties in the district. As Iowa’s election code gives counties 18 days to complete a recount after finishing their canvassing and certifying results — which they were supposed to do on Tuesday — it may be a couple of weeks before we know the final score here.
  • Utah’s 4th Congressional District: Republican Burgess Owens now holds a 0.4-point edge over Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams, or slightly fewer than 1,600 votes, according to ABC News. It’s unclear just how many votes still have to be tallied here — Utah is an all-mail voting state — but the math is getting better and better for Owens, as McAdams needs to win a solid majority of the last few votes to be counted to overcome the Republican’s edge.
  • Three California races: California often sees a large number of votes counted in the days following the election, which sometimes leads to sizable shifts in vote margins. This is due in part to California’s generous mail ballot receipt deadline (Nov. 20), so more votes may arrive in the coming days that will help decide the three remaining contests in the Golden State. In California’s 25th District, Republican Rep. Mike Garcia holds a razor-thin 0.07-point edge (219 votes) over Democrat Christy Smith. While Garcia flipped this seat in a May 2020 special election, it looks like his reelection fate will come down to a final tranche of votes from Los Angeles County. The GOP also holds narrow but somewhat larger leads in California’s 21st and 39th Congressional Districts, but it’s unclear how those races will pan out as multiple counties in the 21st District have more ballots to process, while Orange County — home to part of the 39th District — also has more to count.
  • Six New York races: There’s a lot to cover in these contests — see Nathaniel’s previous post.
  • Bonus — New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District: This race isn’t in our unresolved table because ABC News projected this race for Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski, but things appear to still be up in the air as more votes have been counted. As such, The New York Times removed its projection for the Democratic incumbent, and it may not be the last. Malinowski’s lead is down to 1.1 points, or around 4,600 votes, according to ABC News. And the trajectory of the count has been an example of a “red shift” as Republican Tom Kean Jr. has been gaining as votes have been tallied.
Nathaniel Rakich

Six New York House Races Are Still Unresolved

New York is one of the slowest states in the country to count absentee ballots, and that means a lot of candidates across the Empire State still don’t know whether they won. Here’s a rundown of the six congressional races in which ABC News has yet to project a winner. In general, the Democratic candidates are expected to gain ground in these contests, since absentee ballots tend to be Democratic.

  • 2nd District: Republican Andrew Garbarino leads Democrat Jackie Gordon in this open, Republican-held seat 58 percent to 41 percent, or a margin of 44,497 votes. According to Newsday, there were only about 63,000 absentee ballots cast here, so Garbarino is a heavy favorite.
  • 3rd District: Republican George Santos leads Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi 49.9 percent to 49.6 percent, a margin of just 918 votes. However, Newsday says more than 99,000 absentee ballots were cast here, so Suozzi should easily be able to close that gap.
  • 18th District: Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney leads Republican Chele Farley 51 percent to 48 percent, a margin of 10,041 votes. Maloney has said he’s confident he will extend his lead as absentees are counted, and we tend to agree.
  • 19th District: Democratic Rep. Antonio Delgado currently leads Republican Kyle Van De Water by a margin of 51 percent to 47 percent, or 12,926 votes. Again, the Democrat is favored to hold on here, even when all the absentee ballots are counted; Decision Desk HQ, in fact, has already called the race for Delgado.
  • 22nd District: Republican Claudia Tenney led Democratic Rep. Anthony Brindisi by 28,422 votes after Election Day, but when absentees started to be counted on Thursday, Brindisi cut that lead down to 21,094 votes. As many as 60,000 absentee ballots were cast district-wide, so Brindisi has a narrow but feasible path to victory.
  • 24th District: Although this race remains unprojected, Republican Rep. John Katko has secured a victory over Democrat Dana Balter. On Thursday night, Katko’s lead was 44,729 votes, and there were only 44,400 absentee ballots left to count. And on Friday, Balter conceded the race.


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