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ABC News projects a Republican win in CA-21 (😮).

Nathaniel Rakich

And just after I posted that, ABC News has issued another projection in one of our three (now two) unresolved races. Republican David Valadao has defeated Democratic Rep. TJ Cox in California’s 21st District, giving Republicans their 10th net seat gain in the House. This result was a mild surprise, too, as the Deluxe version of our forecast had given Cox a 58 in 100 chance of winning.

Nathaniel Rakich

Last night, Democrat Christy Smith conceded to Republican Rep. Mike Garcia in California’s 25th District, prompting our colleagues at ABC News to project the seat for Republicans. By our reckoning, the House is now up to 222 Democrats, 210 Republicans (counting whoever wins an all-Republican runoff in Louisiana) and three undecided races.


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