All The Outstanding Races Called In The 3+ Weeks Since The Presidential Election

Our colleagues at ABC News aren’t quite ready to make a projection here, but the Associated Press has called New York’s 3rd Congressional District for Democratic incumbent Tom Suozzi. Suozzi trailed by a small margin on election night, but he’s gained a ton of ground as absentee ballots were counted, and he now leads 53 percent to 47 percent.

Where The Unresolved House Races Stand

Nine House races are still on our radar as we wait to see how they will play out. Here’s a quick update on where those contests stand:

• Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District: In the closest race in the country, Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democrat Rita Hart by fewer than 50 votes in an open seat held by retiring Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack. But given the current margin is just 0.02 percentage points (!), Hart requested a recount, which counties in the district have now begun to conduct. As Iowa’s election code gives counties 18 days to complete a recount after finishing their canvassing and certifying results — which they were supposed to do a week ago — it may still be a few days before we know the final score.
• Two California races: California often sees a large number of votes counted in the days following the election, which sometimes leads to sizable shifts in vote margins. This is due in part to California’s generous mail ballot receipt deadline (Nov. 20), so more votes may arrive in the coming days that will determine the outcomes in two undecided races in the Golden State. In California’s 25th District, Republican Rep. Mike Garcia holds a razor-thin 0.1-point edge (371 votes) over Democrat Christy Smith. Garcia flipped this seat in a May 2020 special election, and Smith may be running out of runway to overtake Garcia as counties near the completion of their vote counts.. The GOP also holds a narrow 1.3-point lead in California’s 21st Congressional District, but it’s unclear how that race will pan out as multiple counties in the 21st District have more ballots to process.
• Five New York races: There’s a fair amount to talk about in these contests, so see Nathaniel’s post below.
• Bonus! New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District: This race isn’t in our unresolved table because ABC News projected Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski as the winner, but things appear to still be up in the air as Malinowski’s lead is down to 1.1 points, or around 4,600 votes. And the trajectory of the count has been an example of a “red shift” as Republican Tom Kean Jr. has been gaining as votes have been tallied, which prompted The New York Times to remove its projection for Malinowski. Still, Kean has an uphill climb, as he’ll have to win a sizable majority of the remaining votes, which may number 15,000 or more.

An Update On The Five Unresolved House Races In New York

Here’s the latest on the five New York congressional races where ABC News has yet to project a winner. In general, the Democratic candidates are expected to gain ground in these contests since absentee ballots tend to be Democratic.

• 2nd District: Republican Andrew Garbarino leads Democrat Jackie Gordon in this open, Republican-held seat 57 percent to 42 percent, or a margin of 41,788 votes. According to Newsday, there were only about 63,000 absentee ballots cast here, and about 11,000 have already been counted (all from Nassau County, the smaller of the district’s two counties). Garbarino has to like his chances of hanging on.
• 3rd District: Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi has taken the lead over Republican George Santos 52 percent to 48 percent, a margin of 12,236 votes. Suozzi should only benefit as more absentees are counted.
• 18th District: Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney leads Republican Chele Farley 51 percent to 48 percent, a margin of 10,041 votes. Maloney has said he’s confident he will extend his lead as absentees are counted, and we tend to agree.
• 19th District: Democratic Rep. Antonio Delgado currently leads Republican Kyle Van De Water by a margin of 51 percent to 47 percent, or 14,264 votes. Again, the Democrat is favored to hold on here, even when all the absentee ballots are counted; Decision Desk HQ, in fact, has already called the race for Delgado.
• 22nd District: Republican Claudia Tenney led Democratic Rep. Anthony Brindisi by 28,422 votes after Election Day, but Brindisi has surged back into contention on the strength of absentee ballots. According to WBNG-TV reporter Josh Rosenblatt, who has been tracking the absentee-ballot dumps, Tenney’s lead is now only 4,670 votes, with somewhere between 12,000 and 17,000 ballots left to count.