All The Outstanding Races Called In The 3+ Weeks Since The Presidential Election

ABC News projects a Republican win in UT-4 (😮).

Here’s the latest on the six New York congressional races where ABC News has yet to project a winner. In general, the Democratic candidates are expected to gain ground in these contests, since absentee ballots skew Democratic.

• 2nd District: Republican Andrew Garbarino leads Democrat Jackie Gordon in this open, Republican-held seat 57 percent to 42 percent, or a margin of 43,077 votes. According to Newsday, there were only about 63,000 absentee ballots cast here, and while it’s unclear how many of those have been counted so far, Garbarino is a heavy favorite regardless.
• 3rd District: Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi has taken the lead over Republican George Santos 51 percent to 49 percent, a margin of 6,381 votes. Suozzi should only benefit as more absentees are counted.
• 18th District: Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney leads Republican Chele Farley 51 percent to 48 percent, a margin of 10,041 votes. Maloney has said he’s confident he will extend his lead as absentees are counted, and we tend to agree.
• 19th District: Democratic Rep. Antonio Delgado currently leads Republican Kyle Van De Water by a margin of 51 percent to 47 percent, or 14,264 votes. Again, the Democrat is favored to hold on here, even when all the absentee ballots are counted; Decision Desk HQ, in fact, has already called the race for Delgado.
• 22nd District: Republican Claudia Tenney led Democratic Rep. Anthony Brindisi by 28,422 votes after Election Day, but Brindisi has surged back into contention on the strength of absentee ballots. According to WBNG-TV reporter Josh Rosenblatt, who has been tracking the absentee-ballot dumps, Tenney’s lead is now only 8,020 votes, with somewhere between 18,000 and 23,000 ballots left to count.
• 24th District: Although this race remains unprojected, Republican Rep. John Katko has secured a victory over Democrat Dana Balter. On Thursday night, Katko’s lead was 44,729 votes, and there were only 44,400 absentee ballots left to count. And on Friday, Balter conceded the race.

• Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District: In the closest race in the country, Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democrat Rita Hart by fewer than 50 votes in an open seat held by retiring Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack. But given the current margin is just 0.01 percentage points (!), counties in the district are expected to begin a recount this week to double-check their tallies. As Iowa’s election code gives counties 18 days to complete a recount after finishing their canvassing and certifying results — which they were supposed to do last Tuesday — it may still be a few days before we know the final score.
• Two California races: California often sees a large number of votes counted in the days following the election, which sometimes leads to sizable shifts in vote margins. This is due in part to California’s generous mail ballot receipt deadline (Nov. 20), so more votes may arrive in the coming days that will determine the outcomes in two undecided races in the Golden State. In California’s 25th District, Republican Rep. Mike Garcia holds a razor-thin 0.03-point edge (104 votes) over Democrat Christy Smith. While Garcia flipped this seat in a May 2020 special election, it remains to be seen if his lead will hold up when updated figures are released on Tuesday. The GOP also holds a narrow 1.3-point lead in California’s 21st Congressional District, but it’s unclear how that race will pan out as multiple counties in the 21st District have more ballots to process.
• Democratic concessions: While ABC news has not yet projected the outcome in Utah’s 4th Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams has conceded to Republican Burgess Owens, who leads by 0.5 points. Similarly, Democratic Rep. Gil Cisneros has also conceded defeat to Republican Young Kim in California’s 39th Congressional District, although we don’t have a projection there either.
• Six New York races: There’s a fair amount to talk about in these contests, so Nathaniel will run through those separately.
• Bonus! New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District: This race isn’t in our unresolved table because ABC News projected Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski as the winner, but things appear to still be up in the air as Malinowski’s lead is down to 1.1 points, or around 4,600 votes. And the trajectory of the count has been an example of a “red shift” as Republican Tom Kean Jr. has been gaining as votes have been tallied, which prompted The New York Times to remove its projection for Malinowski. Still, Kean has an uphill climb, as he’ll have to win a sizable majority of the remaining votes, which may number 15,000 or more.