FiveThirtyEight
Micah Cohen

That last batch of ballots from Arizona wasn’t great for Trump, as Nate said, but it still seems like the state he has the best chance to pull ahead in. He’s been winning just over 50 percent of the recent batches of votes there, and he needs nearer to 60 percent of the remaining vote to pull ahead. Obviously, he’s not hitting his targets, but he’s closer to hitting his targets in Arizona than he is in Pennsylvania or Georgia or even Nevada.


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