FiveThirtyEight
Matt Grossmann

Maps of the results so far from U.S. House elections and state legislative elections illustrate some of the challenges Democrats had translating Biden’s popular-vote advantage into success for down-ballot candidates. They may now lose seats nationwide in both state lower chambers and the U.S. House, and they look likely to substantially underperform both their 2018 success in the U.S. House vote and the preelection generic ballot polls, which showed a large Democratic lead. They are currently about even with Republicans in the national popular vote for House seats; that should change with late-counted votes in the West, but any Democratic edge will not reach the more than 7-point advantage the party held in polls. The state legislative results look more consistent with the congressional results than the presidential results. Democrats continued to lose ground in rural districts without making enough gains in metropolitan districts to compensate.


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