Biden Is Projected To Be The President-Elect. Here’s How It All Went Down.

One thing to consider about mail ballots is that the share of mail ballots that go Democratic doesn’t vary that dramatically relative to Democrats’ overall share of the vote in that county. In a county that’s 20 points more Democratic than the state, Democrats might win the mail vote by 40 points, say. But in a county that’s 2 points more Republican than the state, they might still win the mail vote by 30 points or something. This may not seem intuitive, so here’s a little thought experiment to help explain it. Think of a state where only Democrats vote by mail. In such a state, 100 percent of the mail ballots will be for Democrats in every county by definition, regardless of how Democratic or Republican it is, so the share is exactly the same from county to county. The difference is that in the predominantly Democratic counties, there will be lots of mail ballots, and in the Republican ones, there won’t be that many.