FiveThirtyEight
Meredith Conroy

According to an update from the Center for American Women and Politics, at least 31 Republican women will serve in the 117th Congress, breaking their previous record of 30, set in 2006. Several races where GOP women are running are still uncalled. That said, the number of GOP women in Congress will be lower than the number Democratic women by a lot — at least 100 Democratic women will sit in the 117th, with several races still TBD.

As we reported last cycle, the 116th Congress was a record-setting year for women, driven primarily by Democrats. We noted that tipping the gender balance in Congress was going to be slow if only one party was making an effort to recruit women to run in competitive or safe seats. But this cycle, at least one group — E-PAC, founded in 2018 by New York Rep. Elise Stefanik — sought to change that, and it is looking like it is paying off. Several E-PAC endorsed women have been projected to upset their opponents, including challengers Nancy Mace in South Carolina’s 1st District, Ashley Hinson in Iowa’s 1st District, Maria Elvira Salazar in Florida’s 27th District and Yvette Herrell in New Mexico’s 2nd District. A few more GOP women could upset opponents in races that are still pending, like Michelle Steel in California’s 48th District, Young Kim in California’s 39th District and Nicole Malliotakis in New York’s 11th District. These were all Democratic pick-ups in 2018, so they could swing back to the Republicans. We’re watching these races, and some others, too:

Which Republican women are winning?

Chances of winning for Republican women candidates running for House or Senate seats in 2020, according to our final forecast

Candidate Incumbent District Chances Proj. to win?
Kat Cammack FL-3 98%
Cathy McMorris Rodgers WA-5 98
Jackie Walorski IN-2 97
Elise Stefanik NY-21 95
Cindy Hyde-Smith Senate 88
Jaime Herrera Beutler WA-3 82
Michelle Fischbach MN-7 81
Ann Wagner MO-2 69
Lauren Boebert CO-3 61
Joni Ernst Senate 58
Beth Van Duyne TX-24 52
Victoria Spartz IN-5 50
Stephanie Bice OK-5 49
Yvette Herrell NM-2 45
Nicole Malliotakis NY-11 42
Susan Collins Senate 41
Nancy Mace SC-1 36
Michelle Steel CA-48 32
Claudia Tenney NY-22 27
Karen Handel GA-6 26
Young Kim CA-39 26
Martha McSally Senate 22
Maria Elvira Salazar FL-27 19
Genevieve Collins TX32 16
Jeanne Ives IL-6 13
Ashley Hinson IA-1 13
Tiffany Shedd AZ-1 12
Mariannette Miller-Meeks IA-2 12
Sandy Smith NC-1 6
Chele Farley NY-18 4
Amy Ryan Courser OR-5 4
Esther Joy King IL-17 4
Rosemary Becchi NJ-11 3
Lisa Scheller PA-7 3
Erin Cruz CA-36 3
Monica De La Cruz-Hernandez TX-15 3
Anna Paulina Luna FL-13 2
Amanda Adkins KS-3 2
Christina Hagan OH-13 2
Tamika Hamilton CA-3 2
Kathy Barnette PA-4 1

Excludes races in which the Republican candidate has either a less than 1 in 100 chance or greater than 99 in 100 chance of winning.


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