We haven’t had any surprising projections yet in the presidential race, and plugging those into our interactive map shows that the FiveThirtyEight forecast would be about the same if it knew how those states were going to be decided. If Florida goes to Donald Trump, though, his chances of winning the Electoral College would go up to 33 percent, from about 11 percent. If we put Georgia in Trump’s column as well, his chances would go to 38 percent. Even with a win in North Carolina, the race would still be a toss-up. In that situation, the candidate who wins Pennsylvania would be the very heavy favorite — as we’ve known for a while. But with less of a cushion, Biden probably couldn’t afford to lose any other close states.
