Updated |
Biden Is Projected To Be The President-Elect. Here’s How It All Went Down.
Filed under 2020 Election
8 p.m. Poll Closures
It’s 8 p.m. Eastern, and a bunch of places are now done voting: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee and Washington, D.C.
Our forecasts for the many, many races in those states that could soon be called:
Our final forecasts for the 8 p.m. races
The final numbers from FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for races where the last polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern
| President races | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| chance of winning | |||
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Forecasted avg. vote margin |
| Alabama | 1.6% | 98.4% | R+20 |
| Connecticut | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+24 |
| Delaware | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+26 |
| District of Columbia | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+86 |
| Florida | 69.1 | 30.9 | D+2 |
| Illinois | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+18 |
| Maine (statewide) | 90.1 | 9.9 | D+12 |
| Maine 1st | 97.3 | 2.7 | D+21 |
| Maine 2nd | 57.3 | 42.7 | D+2 |
| Maryland | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+31 |
| Massachusetts | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+35 |
| Mississippi | 8.5 | 91.5 | R+14 |
| Missouri | 6.4 | 93.6 | R+9 |
| New Hampshire | 89.1 | 10.9 | D+11 |
| New Jersey | 99.2 | 0.8 | D+20 |
| Oklahoma | 0.6 | 99.4 | R+25 |
| Pennsylvania | 84.3 | 15.7 | D+5 |
| Rhode Island | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+27 |
| Tennessee | 3.2 | 96.8 | R+16 |
| Senate races | |||
| chance of winning | |||
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Forecasted avg. vote margin |
| Alabama | 12.9% | 87.1% | R+9 |
| Delaware | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+31 |
| Illinois | 99.8 | 0.2 | D+24 |
| Maine | 59.0 | 41.0 | D+2 |
| Massachusetts | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+34 |
| Mississippi | 12.3 | 87.7 | R+9 |
| New Hampshire | 97.9 | 2.1 | D+17 |
| New Jersey | 99.9 | 0.1 | D+26 |
| Oklahoma | 0.6 | 99.4 | R+22 |
| Rhode Island | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+48 |
| Tennessee | 0.3 | 99.7 | R+23 |
| House races | |||
| chance of winning | |||
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Forecasted avg. vote margin |
| AL-1 | 0.1% | 99.9% | R+28 |
| AL-2 | 0.1 | 99.9 | R+29 |
| AL-3 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+36 |
| AL-4 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+63 |
| AL-5 | >99.9 | R+100 | |
| AL-6 | >99.9 | R+86 | |
| AL-7 | >99.9 | D+100 | |
| CT-1 | 99.9 | 0.1 | D+30 |
| CT-2 | 99.4 | 0.6 | D+23 |
| CT-3 | 99.6 | 0.4 | D+26 |
| CT-4 | 99.8 | 0.2 | D+30 |
| CT-5 | 97.1 | 2.9 | D+17 |
| DE | 99.9 | 0.1 | D+24 |
| FL-1 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+33 |
| FL-2 | >99.9 | R+84 | |
| FL-3 | 1.6 | 98.4 | R+20 |
| FL-4 | 0.2 | 99.8 | R+24 |
| FL-5 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+34 |
| FL-6 | 0.2 | 99.8 | R+28 |
| FL-7 | 97.0 | 3.0 | D+17 |
| FL-8 | 0.2 | 99.8 | R+29 |
| FL-9 | 96.5 | 3.5 | D+16 |
| FL-10 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+35 |
| FL-11 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+36 |
| FL-12 | 0.3 | 99.7 | R+27 |
| FL-13 | 97.6 | 2.4 | D+16 |
| FL-14 | 99.9 | 0.1 | D+30 |
| FL-15 | 19.0 | 81.0 | R+6 |
| FL-16 | 9.8 | 90.2 | R+9 |
| FL-17 | 0.1 | 99.9 | R+29 |
| FL-18 | 7.4 | 92.6 | R+12 |
| FL-19 | 0.3 | 99.7 | R+26 |
| FL-20 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+65 |
| FL-21 | 99.8 | 0.2 | D+24 |
| FL-22 | 99.7 | 0.3 | D+26 |
| FL-23 | 99.6 | 0.4 | D+26 |
| FL-24 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+66 |
| FL-25 | >99.9 | R+100 | |
| FL-26 | 81.9 | 18.1 | D+8 |
| FL-27 | 81.5 | 18.5 | D+7 |
| IL-1 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+54 |
| IL-2 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+62 |
| IL-3 | 98.1 | 1.9 | D+19 |
| IL-4 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+69 |
| IL-5 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+49 |
| IL-6 | 86.7 | 13.3 | D+10 |
| IL-7 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+73 |
| IL-8 | >99.9 | D+82 | |
| IL-9 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+47 |
| IL-10 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+36 |
| IL-11 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+32 |
| IL-12 | 1.5 | 98.5 | R+20 |
| IL-13 | 36.7 | 63.3 | R+2 |
| IL-14 | 87.2 | 12.8 | D+10 |
| IL-15 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+41 |
| IL-16 | 1.3 | 98.7 | R+21 |
| IL-17 | 95.9 | 4.1 | D+12 |
| IL-18 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+38 |
| MA-1 | >99.9 | D+83 | |
| MA-2 | 99.9 | 0.1 | D+32 |
| MA-3 | >99.9 | D+100 | |
| MA-4 | 99.8 | 0.2 | D+31 |
| MA-5 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+46 |
| MA-6 | 99.7 | 0.3 | D+27 |
| MA-7 | >99.9 | D+100 | |
| MA-8 | >99.9 | D+100 | |
| MA-9 | 99.4 | 0.6 | D+24 |
| MD-1 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+33 |
| MD-2 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+32 |
| MD-3 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+40 |
| MD-4 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+61 |
| MD-5 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+43 |
| MD-6 | 98.4 | 1.6 | D+19 |
| MD-7 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+42 |
| MD-8 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+41 |
| ME-1 | 99.8 | 0.2 | D+25 |
| ME-2 | 96.3 | 3.7 | D+14 |
| MO-1 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+60 |
| MO-2 | 30.6 | 69.4 | R+4 |
| MO-3 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+42 |
| MO-4 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+36 |
| MO-5 | 99.6 | 0.4 | D+24 |
| MO-6 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+38 |
| MO-7 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+47 |
| MO-8 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+47 |
| MS-1 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+37 |
| MS-2 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+47 |
| MS-3 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+33 |
| MS-4 | >99.9 | R+100 | |
| NH-1 | 83.6 | 16.4 | D+7 |
| NH-2 | 97.6 | 2.4 | D+15 |
| NJ-1 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+36 |
| NJ-2 | 50.2 | 49.8 | EVEN |
| NJ-3 | 93.4 | 6.6 | D+12 |
| NJ-4 | 1.8 | 98.2 | R+20 |
| NJ-5 | 97.8 | 2.2 | D+18 |
| NJ-6 | 99.9 | 0.1 | D+31 |
| NJ-7 | 75.8 | 24.2 | D+6 |
| NJ-8 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+58 |
| NJ-9 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+42 |
| NJ-10 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+72 |
| NJ-11 | 97.0 | 3.0 | D+17 |
| NJ-12 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+41 |
| OK-1 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+29 |
| OK-2 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+44 |
| OK-3 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+53 |
| OK-4 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+39 |
| OK-5 | 50.9 | 49.1 | EVEN |
| PA-1 | 16.2 | 83.7 | R+7 |
| PA-2 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+57 |
| PA-3 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+83 |
| PA-4 | 99.0 | 1.0 | D+21 |
| PA-5 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+37 |
| PA-6 | 99.1 | 0.9 | D+21 |
| PA-7 | 96.8 | 3.2 | D+13 |
| PA-8 | 92.4 | 7.6 | D+10 |
| PA-9 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+32 |
| PA-10 | 47.8 | 52.2 | EVEN |
| PA-11 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+31 |
| PA-12 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+42 |
| PA-13 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+47 |
| PA-14 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+33 |
| PA-15 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+45 |
| PA-16 | 2.9 | 97.1 | R+15 |
| PA-17 | 89.2 | 10.8 | D+10 |
| PA-18 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+38 |
| RI-1 | >99.9 | D+84 | |
| RI-2 | 99.7 | 0.3 | D+29 |
| TN-1 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+49 |
| TN-2 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+35 |
| TN-3 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+37 |
| TN-4 | 0.1 | 99.9 | R+33 |
| TN-5 | >99.9 | D+100 | |
| TN-6 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+50 |
| TN-7 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+40 |
| TN-8 | <0.1 | >99.9 | R+42 |
| TN-9 | >99.9 | <0.1 | D+57 |