FiveThirtyEight
Matt Grossmann

There remains a lot of disagreement in polls and among political scientists about the level of Latino support for Trump. But most surveys have shown Trump rising among Latinos from the level the same poll showed in 2016. Given that the national electorate is projected to move 5 or 6 points toward Democrats, that would be a significant divergence in need of explanation. It could change a lot of narratives about a rising Democratic majority based on demographic change.


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