Is The Tipping-Point State Pennsylvania?
In the past four years, political observers have often talked about three states — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — in a single breath. They were the three so-called Blue Wall states that had traditionally backed Democratic presidential candidates but put Trump over the top in 2016. But now, polls — and FiveThirtyEight’s final forecast — suggest that Trump’s chances may be better in Pennsylvania than in Wisconsin or Michigan.
Why is that?
It’s actually not all that clear. Take election evening 2018. Pennsylvania reelected a Democratic senator and governor by double digits, while Wisconsin’s Republican Gov. Scott Walker nearly won a third term. Pennsylvania also has, in many ways, an electorate that would seem to be friendlier to Democrats, given that it has more college-educated voters than Wisconsin. So before 2020, it seemed that if Wisconsin — not Pennsylvania — was a little more likely to lean GOP this year.
But is Pennsylvania the more competitive state tonight? That’s something I’ll be watching closely. One possibility to keep in mind is that Pennsylvania is a state with party registration, while Wisconsin (and Michigan) are not. That might make those other states harder to poll — and so might make polling in Pennsylvania more accurate.