It looks as though Republicans will wind up with around a net +2 percent on party registration in Florida. That’s not terrible for them, and they reversed a slight Democratic disadvantage based on early and absentee voting. But it’s also not great. Based on the partisan splits in recent polls of Florida, I estimated that — because Biden is doing better among independents in most polls of the state and gets somewhat more crossover voters — the breakeven point for a Trump win was about R +3.5 in Florida. That is, if Republicans led in turnout by 3.5 points or more, Trump would be the favorite to win; otherwise Biden would be. We’ll probably end up just to the Biden side of the line. With that said, there’s a lot of uncertainty. Some polls in Florida showed Biden with big leaders among independents in Florida, while in others he was running evenly with Trump.
