Be Aware: Trump Might Falsely Declare Victory
It’s dismaying to have to write this sort of blog post, since it doesn’t say great things about the health of our democracy, but: Trump could misleadingly declare victory tonight, even if the final vote count is uncertain and there is no clear winner.
In fact, reporting from Axios from over the weekend indicates that this is a possibility Trump has been discussing with his team for some time. “For this to happen,” the report said, “his allies expect he would need to either win or have commanding leads in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Iowa, Arizona and Georgia.”
Of course, as we at FiveThirtyEight and many other outlets have emphasized repeatedly over the past few weeks, this year’s vote count is expected to take longer than usual because of the high number of mail-in ballots. Keep in mind that what matters is the final vote count, not who looks “ahead” at the end of election night. In other words, the Trump campaign might be counting on early returns to create a mirage of a “red wave” on election night that, in reality, would soon ebb. Republicans are expected to vote in person more often than Democrats, and in-person votes will be counted first in some states, which could give the impression of Trump being “ahead” even if he ends up losing in the final count (which includes mail-in votes).
Given the high volume of ballots and the fact that some states don’t allow ballot counting to begin until Election Day, it’s entirely expected and entirely legal that some ballots will be counted after midnight on Nov. 3. This has taken on particular importance in Pennsylvania, which has already been the subject of lawsuits over which ballots can be counted. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that ballots postmarked by Nov. 3 can be counted as long as they’re received by Nov. 6, but conservative members of the highest court left open the possibility that they could return to the issue after Election Day (their ruling last week indicated that there wasn’t enough time to weigh in before Election Day). Trump said on Monday that he will pursue aggressive litigation in Pennsylvania over the issue of ballot counting.
On Biden’s end, his campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon said that, “Under no scenario will Donald Trump be declared a victor on election night.”
We at FiveThirtyEight will do our best to clearly convey the state of the race throughout the night, including the very real possibility that there is no winner at the end of the night. Pace yourselves, people.